IA & tech · English

Nvidia annoncera-t-elle un chiffre d'affaires trimestriel supérieur à 112 milliards de dollars pour son T3 de l'exercice 2027 ?

échéance 2026-12-15 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 1
Résolution en cours de vérification
SEC : 1 dépôt(s) 8-K contenant "NVIDIA" — le plus récent du 2026-09-03 (NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)) · source
49 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Oui si le communiqué officiel de résultats du T3 FY2027 publié sur nvidianews.nvidia.com indique un chiffre d'affaires total supérieur à 112,0 milliards de dollars. Le 10-Q déposé à la SEC fait foi en cas d'écart.

État de départ vérifié

T2 FY27 clos le 26 juillet 2026 : 96,2 G$ de CA total dont 89,0 G$ en data center. Guidance T3 FY27 : 108,0 G$ ±2 %. Le T2 avait battu sa guidance d'environ 3,5 %. (communiqué Nvidia du 26 août 2026)
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Whether data center revenue upside exceeds the guidance midpoint by more than 3.71% amid supply chain delivery pacing and hyperscaler capex timing.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2026-12-15
Taux de base55%
Meilleure preuveniveau 1 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations46 · 51 (écart 5 pts)
Confiancemoyenne
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-10-18 09:07
Modèlegemini-3.7-flash

Sources consultées

NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027niveau 1 · NVIDIA Newsroom · 2026-08-26Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue reportniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-08Nvidia Reports Blowout Quarter, Says Demand for AI Chips Is Getting Even Hotterniveau 2 · wsj.com · 2026-08-26Nvidia earnings takeaways: Huang forecasts 70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth, far above estimatesniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-08-26OpenAI’s Annualized Revenue Neared $50 Billion, Lower Than Past Reportsniveau 3 · The Information · 2026-10-08Nvidia stock hits record high after Foxconn Q3 2026 revenue surgeniveau 3 · Quartz · 2026-10-06

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-18 09:07 49% 68 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Reaching $112.0 billion requires a 3.71% beat over the $108.0B guidance midpoint, comparable to the ~3.5% beat recorded in Q2 FY27 [tier 1, hand-verified state].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Management noted demand for AI chips was continuing to accelerate, and partner supply chain results like Foxconn's Q3 revenue surge indicate sustained high-volume hardware shipments [tier 2, article 6; tier 3, article 15].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Guidance was set at $108.0B ±2%, meaning $112.0B sits comfortably above the guided range ceiling of $110.16B [tier 1, hand-verified state].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. As revenue approaches $100B+ quarterly, percentage beat margins have compressed; repeating Q2's 3.5% beat would result in ~$111.8B, just missing the threshold [tier 1, hand-verified state].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Reports that key customer OpenAI's annualized revenue trailed earlier estimates have raised questions about near-term hyperscaler compute absorption [tier 2, article 2; tier 3, article 11].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether data center revenue upside exceeds the guidance midpoint by more than 3.71% amid supply chain delivery pacing and hyperscaler capex timing.
2026-10-16 20:04 68% 62 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Official Q3 FY27 revenue guidance midpoint is $108.0B, meaning Nvidia needs only a 3.7% beat above guidance to surpass $112.0B, which is very close to its Q2 FY27 beat of ~3.5% [1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Supply chain indicators remain strong, with key manufacturing partners like Foxconn reporting record revenue surges in Q3 2026 driven by AI server demand [3].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Nvidia leadership continues to report hot demand for AI chips across enterprise and cloud customers [2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Surpassing $112.0B requires a beat margin of at least 3.7% over $108.0B guidance, which is slightly higher than the beat achieved in Q2 FY27 (~3.5%) as revenue growth scale makes large percentage beats harder [1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Market concerns over AI monetization and end-user revenue projections (such as revised OpenAI revenue figures) could lead to tighter hyperscaler spending control [2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Increasing competition in regional markets like China, where Huawei's AI chip market share has grown significantly [4].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether Nvidia's Q3 shipment delivery rate and supply allocation allow it to beat its $108.0B guidance by more than 3.7%.
2026-10-07 09:06 72% 36 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Official Q3 FY2027 guidance is $108.0 billion ±2%, placing the upper bound at $110.16 billion [0].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Nvidia beat its Q2 FY2027 guidance by approximately 3.5%; a slightly larger beat of 3.71% would reach the $112 billion target [0].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Key partner Foxconn reported a revenue surge in Q3 2026, signaling robust demand for AI server infrastructure [7].
  • Ce qui fait monter. AI memory supplier Micron reported that its revenue quintupled, indicating a high-growth environment for the AI supply chain [10].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Major customer OpenAI is nearing $70 billion in annualized revenue and continues to secure massive investment for compute resources [8, 12].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Management reports that demand for AI chips is 'getting even hotter' as they enter the 'golden age' of AI [4, 5].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The $112 billion target requires a beat of at least 3.71% over the midpoint guidance, which is higher than the 3.5% beat recorded in the previous quarter [0].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. As the revenue base grows to $100B+ per quarter, maintaining high percentage beats becomes mathematically more difficult [14].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The official guidance range tops out at $110.16 billion, meaning the target is nearly $2 billion above the company's own optimistic projection [0].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The specific magnitude of the revenue beat relative to the $108 billion midpoint guidance, as the target lies just beyond the recent 3.5% beat trend.
2026-09-30 20:31 15% 13 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
  • Ce qui fait monter. Q2 FY27 beat its guidance by ~3.5% indicating Nvidia can exceed forecasts (tier 1)
  • Ce qui fait monter. Strong AI demand and growth forecasts suggest upside potential (tier 2)
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Official Q3 FY27 guidance is $108 B ±2%, well below $112 B (hand‑verified)
  • Ce qui fait descendre. No concrete evidence of a larger beat; tier‑4 articles reporting lower figures are unreliable (tier 4)
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether Q3 performance will substantially exceed the $108 B guidance (e.g., a surprise demand surge)
2026-09-24 21:37 58% 10 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. The required quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% to reach $112B is lower than the 17.9% growth achieved in the previous quarter [Starting State, 9].
  • Ce qui fait monter. CEO Jensen Huang reported that demand for AI chips is 'getting even hotter' as the industry enters a 'golden age' [4, 5].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Nvidia has a consistent track record of beating guidance, including a 3.5% beat in Q2 FY27 [Starting State].
  • Ce qui fait monter. The transition to the Blackwell architecture is underway, which could provide a significant revenue catalyst if production ramps successfully [0, 5].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The $112B target is $1.84B above the upper bound of Nvidia's official guidance range of $108B ± 2% [0].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The required beat of 3.7% is slightly higher than the 3.5% beat recorded in the previous quarter, and maintaining such margins becomes harder at a $100B+ scale [Starting State].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Geopolitical tensions and a high concentration of the supply chain in Taiwan present persistent tail risks to production [8].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The magnitude of the revenue beat depends heavily on the supply-side capacity to meet 'hotter' demand and the successful volume ramp of Blackwell chips.
2026-09-23 09:07 57% 8 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash

Raisons non conservées pour cette révision (l'historique détaillé n'est gardé que depuis peu).

2026-09-21 19:01 62% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Raisons non conservées pour cette révision (l'historique détaillé n'est gardé que depuis peu).