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Will Nvidia report quarterly revenue above $112 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2027?

deadline 2026-12-15 confidence medium tier 1 evidence
Resolution being verified
SEC : 1 dépôt(s) 8-K contenant "NVIDIA" — le plus récent du 2026-09-03 (NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)) · source
49%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if the official Q3 FY2027 earnings release published on nvidianews.nvidia.com states total revenue above $112.0 billion. The 10-Q filed with the SEC prevails in case of discrepancy.

Verified starting state

Q2 FY27, ended 26 July 2026: $96.2B total revenue, of which $89.0B data center. Q3 FY27 guidance: $108.0B ±2%. Q2 had beaten its guidance by roughly 3.5%. (Nvidia release, 26 August 2026)

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether data center revenue upside exceeds the guidance midpoint by more than 3.71% amid supply chain delivery pacing and hyperscaler capex timing.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-12-15
Base rate55%
Best evidencetier 1 · 6 article(s) used
Independent runs46 · 51 (spread 5 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-10-18 09:07
Modelgemini-3.7-flash

Sources consulted

NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027tier 1 · NVIDIA Newsroom · 2026-08-26Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue reporttier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-08Nvidia Reports Blowout Quarter, Says Demand for AI Chips Is Getting Even Hottertier 2 · wsj.com · 2026-08-26Nvidia earnings takeaways: Huang forecasts 70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth, far above estimatestier 2 · CNBC · 2026-08-26OpenAI’s Annualized Revenue Neared $50 Billion, Lower Than Past Reportstier 3 · The Information · 2026-10-08Nvidia stock hits record high after Foxconn Q3 2026 revenue surgetier 3 · Quartz · 2026-10-06

Probability history

2026-10-18 09:07 49% 68 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
  • What pushes it up. Reaching $112.0 billion requires a 3.71% beat over the $108.0B guidance midpoint, comparable to the ~3.5% beat recorded in Q2 FY27 [tier 1, hand-verified state].
  • What pushes it up. Management noted demand for AI chips was continuing to accelerate, and partner supply chain results like Foxconn's Q3 revenue surge indicate sustained high-volume hardware shipments [tier 2, article 6; tier 3, article 15].
  • What pushes it down. Guidance was set at $108.0B ±2%, meaning $112.0B sits comfortably above the guided range ceiling of $110.16B [tier 1, hand-verified state].
  • What pushes it down. As revenue approaches $100B+ quarterly, percentage beat margins have compressed; repeating Q2's 3.5% beat would result in ~$111.8B, just missing the threshold [tier 1, hand-verified state].
  • What pushes it down. Reports that key customer OpenAI's annualized revenue trailed earlier estimates have raised questions about near-term hyperscaler compute absorption [tier 2, article 2; tier 3, article 11].
  • What would move this number most. Whether data center revenue upside exceeds the guidance midpoint by more than 3.71% amid supply chain delivery pacing and hyperscaler capex timing.
2026-10-16 20:04 68% 62 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. Official Q3 FY27 revenue guidance midpoint is $108.0B, meaning Nvidia needs only a 3.7% beat above guidance to surpass $112.0B, which is very close to its Q2 FY27 beat of ~3.5% [1].
  • What pushes it up. Supply chain indicators remain strong, with key manufacturing partners like Foxconn reporting record revenue surges in Q3 2026 driven by AI server demand [3].
  • What pushes it up. Nvidia leadership continues to report hot demand for AI chips across enterprise and cloud customers [2].
  • What pushes it down. Surpassing $112.0B requires a beat margin of at least 3.7% over $108.0B guidance, which is slightly higher than the beat achieved in Q2 FY27 (~3.5%) as revenue growth scale makes large percentage beats harder [1].
  • What pushes it down. Market concerns over AI monetization and end-user revenue projections (such as revised OpenAI revenue figures) could lead to tighter hyperscaler spending control [2].
  • What pushes it down. Increasing competition in regional markets like China, where Huawei's AI chip market share has grown significantly [4].
  • What would move this number most. Whether Nvidia's Q3 shipment delivery rate and supply allocation allow it to beat its $108.0B guidance by more than 3.7%.
2026-10-07 09:06 72% 36 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Official Q3 FY2027 guidance is $108.0 billion ±2%, placing the upper bound at $110.16 billion [0].
  • What pushes it up. Nvidia beat its Q2 FY2027 guidance by approximately 3.5%; a slightly larger beat of 3.71% would reach the $112 billion target [0].
  • What pushes it up. Key partner Foxconn reported a revenue surge in Q3 2026, signaling robust demand for AI server infrastructure [7].
  • What pushes it up. AI memory supplier Micron reported that its revenue quintupled, indicating a high-growth environment for the AI supply chain [10].
  • What pushes it up. Major customer OpenAI is nearing $70 billion in annualized revenue and continues to secure massive investment for compute resources [8, 12].
  • What pushes it up. Management reports that demand for AI chips is 'getting even hotter' as they enter the 'golden age' of AI [4, 5].
  • What pushes it down. The $112 billion target requires a beat of at least 3.71% over the midpoint guidance, which is higher than the 3.5% beat recorded in the previous quarter [0].
  • What pushes it down. As the revenue base grows to $100B+ per quarter, maintaining high percentage beats becomes mathematically more difficult [14].
  • What pushes it down. The official guidance range tops out at $110.16 billion, meaning the target is nearly $2 billion above the company's own optimistic projection [0].
  • What would move this number most. The specific magnitude of the revenue beat relative to the $108 billion midpoint guidance, as the target lies just beyond the recent 3.5% beat trend.
2026-09-30 20:31 15% 13 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
  • What pushes it up. Q2 FY27 beat its guidance by ~3.5% indicating Nvidia can exceed forecasts (tier 1)
  • What pushes it up. Strong AI demand and growth forecasts suggest upside potential (tier 2)
  • What pushes it down. Official Q3 FY27 guidance is $108 B ±2%, well below $112 B (hand‑verified)
  • What pushes it down. No concrete evidence of a larger beat; tier‑4 articles reporting lower figures are unreliable (tier 4)
  • What would move this number most. Whether Q3 performance will substantially exceed the $108 B guidance (e.g., a surprise demand surge)
2026-09-24 21:37 58% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The required quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% to reach $112B is lower than the 17.9% growth achieved in the previous quarter [Starting State, 9].
  • What pushes it up. CEO Jensen Huang reported that demand for AI chips is 'getting even hotter' as the industry enters a 'golden age' [4, 5].
  • What pushes it up. Nvidia has a consistent track record of beating guidance, including a 3.5% beat in Q2 FY27 [Starting State].
  • What pushes it up. The transition to the Blackwell architecture is underway, which could provide a significant revenue catalyst if production ramps successfully [0, 5].
  • What pushes it down. The $112B target is $1.84B above the upper bound of Nvidia's official guidance range of $108B ± 2% [0].
  • What pushes it down. The required beat of 3.7% is slightly higher than the 3.5% beat recorded in the previous quarter, and maintaining such margins becomes harder at a $100B+ scale [Starting State].
  • What pushes it down. Geopolitical tensions and a high concentration of the supply chain in Taiwan present persistent tail risks to production [8].
  • What would move this number most. The magnitude of the revenue beat depends heavily on the supply-side capacity to meet 'hotter' demand and the successful volume ramp of Blackwell chips.
2026-09-23 09:07 57% 8 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash

Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).

2026-09-21 19:01 62% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash

Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).