Les prix à la consommation américains d'octobre 2026 progresseront-ils d'au moins 3,7 % sur un an (ensemble, CPI-U, non désaisonnalisé), selon la première valeur publiée par le Bureau of Labor Statistics au plus tard le 12 novembre 2026 ?

échéance 2026-11-12 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 2

Résolution en cours de vérification

Échéance du 2026-11-12 dépassée

7 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Oui si le BLS publie, au plus tard le 12 novembre 2026, une variation sur 12 mois de l'IPC CPI-U ensemble (non désaisonnalisé) d'octobre 2026 de +3,7 % ou plus (première valeur publiée, arrondie par le BLS). Une valeur inférieure, ou aucune publication à cette date, vaut Non.

État de départ vérifié

Pour septembre 2026, une source tierce indique un CPI-U de +3,7 % sur un an (août : +3,4 %), +0,6 % sur un mois en données corrigées (à vérifier sur bls.gov). La publication d'octobre est prévue le 10 novembre 2026 à 08 h 30 (calendrier du BLS). Le seuil est égal à la valeur de septembre. Les prévisions ne sont pas utilisées comme preuve.

Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

The September 2026 CPI-U was 3.7% year-on-year, establishing a high baseline for the October reading [1].
Tier 4 sources suggest that October inflation figures 'exceeded forecasts,' which could imply a figure at or above the previous month's level [1, 2].

Ce qui fait descendre

A Tier 2 source (Bloomberg) explicitly reported on November 9 that the BLS would not publish the 12-month CPI figures for October 2026 [0].
The resolution criterion specifies that 'no publication' of the 12-month change by the deadline resolves the question as 'No' [Resolution Criterion].
A Tier 4 source reports inflation at 0.4% for October; if this refers to the year-on-year figure, it is significantly below the 3.7% threshold [2].

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

The primary uncertainty is whether the BLS actually withheld the 12-month year-on-year figure as reported by Bloomberg, or if the Tier 4 reports of '0.4%' inflation imply a standard release occurred that included the required 12-month metric.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance	2026-11-12
Taux de base	50%
Meilleure preuve	niveau 2 · 3 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations	5 · 8 (écart 3 pts)
Confiance	moyenne
Plafond de preuve	non déclenché
Révisée le	2026-11-11 09:02
Modèle	gemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consultées

BLS Will Not Publish 12-Month CPI, Core CPI Figures For Octoberniveau 2 · Bloomberg.com · 2026-11-09 October U.S. CPI Beats Forecasts as Core Inflation Stays Firmniveau 4 · Bitcoin Foundation · 2026-11-10 US Inflation Slows to 0.4% in October, Exceeds Forecastsniveau 4 · US Inflation Calculator · 2026-11-10

Historique de la probabilité

2026-11-11 09:02 7% 17 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The September 2026 CPI-U was 3.7% year-on-year, establishing a high baseline for the October reading [1].
Ce qui fait monter. Tier 4 sources suggest that October inflation figures 'exceeded forecasts,' which could imply a figure at or above the previous month's level [1, 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. A Tier 2 source (Bloomberg) explicitly reported on November 9 that the BLS would not publish the 12-month CPI figures for October 2026 [0].
Ce qui fait descendre. The resolution criterion specifies that 'no publication' of the 12-month change by the deadline resolves the question as 'No' [Resolution Criterion].
Ce qui fait descendre. A Tier 4 source reports inflation at 0.4% for October; if this refers to the year-on-year figure, it is significantly below the 3.7% threshold [2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is whether the BLS actually withheld the 12-month year-on-year figure as reported by Bloomberg, or if the Tier 4 reports of '0.4%' inflation imply a standard release occurred that included the required 12-month metric.

2026-11-10 09:06 8% 12 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. Year-on-year CPI-U was already at 3.7% for September 2026, establishing a strong baseline [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Bloomberg reports that the BLS will not publish 12-month CPI figures for October 2026, which would lead to a 'No' resolution [tier 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. Economists expect October inflation to cool down due to easing gasoline prices [tier 4].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the BLS provides an official 12-month CPI-U calculation for October 2026 prior to the deadline.

2026-11-09 09:03 58% 10 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 inflation reached 3.7%, showing an upward trend from August's 3.4% [1]
Ce qui fait monter. Reports of soaring petrol prices due to Middle East conflict suggest significant upward pressure on the energy component of the CPI [4]
Ce qui fait monter. Record high electricity futures in October 2026 indicate rising energy costs globally [1]
Ce qui fait descendre. Cooling consumer inflation in China could lead to lower prices for imported goods in the US [0]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The base effect from October 2025 and the specific impact of global energy price volatility on the US domestic market relative to other regions.

2026-11-08 09:08 55% 6 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. Hand-verified starting state shows CPI-U inflation accelerating from 3.4% in August 2026 to 3.7% in September 2026, driven by a strong month-on-month increase of +0.6% [tier 1].
Ce qui fait monter. Reports indicate Middle East tensions driving up petrol prices, which could add upward pressure on energy components [tier 4].
Ce qui fait descendre. A strong base effect from October 2025 could make it harder for October 2026 YoY inflation to stay at or above 3.7% if monthly growth moderates from September's +0.6%.
Ce qui fait descendre. Press articles provided are limited to tier 4 sources and offer no tier 1 or 2 official confirmation of sustained high October price growth [tier 4].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether October 2026 month-on-month CPI growth offsets the October 2025 base effect.

2026-11-07 09:08 61% 6 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The September 2026 CPI-U was 3.7%, representing an increase from 3.4% in August [tier 1]
Ce qui fait monter. The month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase for September was 0.6%, suggesting strong upward price momentum [tier 1]
Ce qui fait monter. Reports of soaring petrol prices due to Middle East conflict, cited as a driver for high inflation in other regions, indicate potential upward pressure on the US energy component [tier 4]
Ce qui fait descendre. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicates tightening credit conditions, which typically acts as a drag on consumer spending and inflation [tier 4]
Ce qui fait descendre. The year-on-year calculation is highly dependent on the October 2025 base figure, which is not provided in the source material
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The unknown month-on-month inflation rate from October 2025, which serves as the base for the year-on-year comparison.

2026-11-06 09:03 54% 6 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash

Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 CPI-U reached 3.7% YoY with a strong +0.6% monthly gain, indicating high short-term inflation momentum going into October [tier 1].
Ce qui fait monter. Rising global energy and petrol prices reported in October amid Middle East conflicts could exert upward pressure on consumer prices [tier 4].
Ce qui fait descendre. A potential strong base effect from October 2025 could cause the year-on-year rate to drop back below 3.7%.
Ce qui fait descendre. Tight monetary policy and slowing bank lending activity could continue to temper broader consumer demand and core inflation [tier 4].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The magnitude of the base effect from October 2025 compared to the actual non-seasonally adjusted monthly price changes in October 2026.

2026-11-04 09:13 51% 4 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash

Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 year-on-year CPI-U inflation already reached +3.7%, up from +3.4% in August, showing upward short-term momentum [tier 1].
Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI rose by a robust +0.6%, reflecting strong underlying price pressures entering the final quarter of the year [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The 3.7% threshold is elevated compared to the long-term historical average, and seasonal adjustments or potential dips in volatile components like energy could pull the non-seasonally adjusted YoY rate down slightly [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Tight bank lending practices outlined in recent Fed survey data reflect broader financial conditions designed to curb demand and slow inflation [tier 4].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The exact magnitude of non-seasonally adjusted monthly price shifts in energy and housing relative to October 2025 base effects.

2026-11-03 09:13 53% 2 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. Year-on-year CPI-U accelerated from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September 2026, supported by strong month-on-month momentum (+0.6% seasonally adjusted) [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Unadjusted October CPI frequently experiences autumn seasonal cooling or stabilization, which could drag the 12-month rate slightly below the 3.7% threshold [tier 1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The magnitude of the October 2026 month-on-month unadjusted price change compared to October 2025.

2026-11-01 15:02 57% 1 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 inflation (3.7%) showed an acceleration from August (3.4%), establishing an upward trend [1].
Ce qui fait monter. The September month-on-month increase of 0.6% seasonally adjusted is high, suggesting significant price momentum entering October [1].
Ce qui fait monter. The threshold for a 'Yes' resolution (3.7%) is identical to the most recent official reading, meaning no further year-on-year acceleration is required for a positive outcome [1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The year-on-year figure is highly sensitive to the October 2025 base effect, which is not provided in the current data [1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The 0.6% month-on-month increase in September could be an anomaly that regresses in October if driven by volatile components [1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Tier 4 analysis of prediction markets shows significant bets on a lower outcome, suggesting market skepticism regarding the persistence of the current spike [0].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The October 2025 month-on-month change, which determines the base effect for the October 2026 year-on-year calculation.