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Will US consumer prices for October 2026 rise by at least 3.7% year on year (all items, CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted), according to the first figure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on or before 12 November 2026?

deadline 2026-11-12 confidence medium tier 2 evidence
Resolution being verified
Échéance du 2026-11-12 dépassée
7%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if the BLS publishes, on or before 12 November 2026, a 12-month change in the all-items CPI-U (not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026 of +3.7% or more (first published value, as rounded by the BLS). A lower value, or no publication by that date, resolves No.

Verified starting state

For September 2026, a third-party source reports CPI-U +3.7% year on year (August: +3.4%), +0.6% month on month seasonally adjusted (to be checked on bls.gov). The October release is scheduled for 10 November 2026 at 08:30 (BLS release calendar). The threshold equals the September reading. Forecasts are not used as evidence.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

The primary uncertainty is whether the BLS actually withheld the 12-month year-on-year figure as reported by Bloomberg, or if the Tier 4 reports of '0.4%' inflation imply a standard release occurred that included the required 12-month metric.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-11-12
Base rate50%
Best evidencetier 2 · 3 article(s) used
Independent runs5 · 8 (spread 3 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-11-11 09:02
Modelgemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consulted

BLS Will Not Publish 12-Month CPI, Core CPI Figures For Octobertier 2 · Bloomberg.com · 2026-11-09October U.S. CPI Beats Forecasts as Core Inflation Stays Firmtier 4 · Bitcoin Foundation · 2026-11-10US Inflation Slows to 0.4% in October, Exceeds Forecaststier 4 · US Inflation Calculator · 2026-11-10

Probability history

2026-11-11 09:02 7% 17 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The September 2026 CPI-U was 3.7% year-on-year, establishing a high baseline for the October reading [1].
  • What pushes it up. Tier 4 sources suggest that October inflation figures 'exceeded forecasts,' which could imply a figure at or above the previous month's level [1, 2].
  • What pushes it down. A Tier 2 source (Bloomberg) explicitly reported on November 9 that the BLS would not publish the 12-month CPI figures for October 2026 [0].
  • What pushes it down. The resolution criterion specifies that 'no publication' of the 12-month change by the deadline resolves the question as 'No' [Resolution Criterion].
  • What pushes it down. A Tier 4 source reports inflation at 0.4% for October; if this refers to the year-on-year figure, it is significantly below the 3.7% threshold [2].
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is whether the BLS actually withheld the 12-month year-on-year figure as reported by Bloomberg, or if the Tier 4 reports of '0.4%' inflation imply a standard release occurred that included the required 12-month metric.
2026-11-10 09:06 8% 12 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Year-on-year CPI-U was already at 3.7% for September 2026, establishing a strong baseline [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Bloomberg reports that the BLS will not publish 12-month CPI figures for October 2026, which would lead to a 'No' resolution [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Economists expect October inflation to cool down due to easing gasoline prices [tier 4].
  • What would move this number most. Whether the BLS provides an official 12-month CPI-U calculation for October 2026 prior to the deadline.
2026-11-09 09:03 58% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. September 2026 inflation reached 3.7%, showing an upward trend from August's 3.4% [1]
  • What pushes it up. Reports of soaring petrol prices due to Middle East conflict suggest significant upward pressure on the energy component of the CPI [4]
  • What pushes it up. Record high electricity futures in October 2026 indicate rising energy costs globally [1]
  • What pushes it down. Cooling consumer inflation in China could lead to lower prices for imported goods in the US [0]
  • What would move this number most. The base effect from October 2025 and the specific impact of global energy price volatility on the US domestic market relative to other regions.
2026-11-08 09:08 55% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Hand-verified starting state shows CPI-U inflation accelerating from 3.4% in August 2026 to 3.7% in September 2026, driven by a strong month-on-month increase of +0.6% [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. Reports indicate Middle East tensions driving up petrol prices, which could add upward pressure on energy components [tier 4].
  • What pushes it down. A strong base effect from October 2025 could make it harder for October 2026 YoY inflation to stay at or above 3.7% if monthly growth moderates from September's +0.6%.
  • What pushes it down. Press articles provided are limited to tier 4 sources and offer no tier 1 or 2 official confirmation of sustained high October price growth [tier 4].
  • What would move this number most. Whether October 2026 month-on-month CPI growth offsets the October 2025 base effect.
2026-11-07 09:08 61% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The September 2026 CPI-U was 3.7%, representing an increase from 3.4% in August [tier 1]
  • What pushes it up. The month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase for September was 0.6%, suggesting strong upward price momentum [tier 1]
  • What pushes it up. Reports of soaring petrol prices due to Middle East conflict, cited as a driver for high inflation in other regions, indicate potential upward pressure on the US energy component [tier 4]
  • What pushes it down. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicates tightening credit conditions, which typically acts as a drag on consumer spending and inflation [tier 4]
  • What pushes it down. The year-on-year calculation is highly dependent on the October 2025 base figure, which is not provided in the source material
  • What would move this number most. The unknown month-on-month inflation rate from October 2025, which serves as the base for the year-on-year comparison.
2026-11-06 09:03 54% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. September 2026 CPI-U reached 3.7% YoY with a strong +0.6% monthly gain, indicating high short-term inflation momentum going into October [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. Rising global energy and petrol prices reported in October amid Middle East conflicts could exert upward pressure on consumer prices [tier 4].
  • What pushes it down. A potential strong base effect from October 2025 could cause the year-on-year rate to drop back below 3.7%.
  • What pushes it down. Tight monetary policy and slowing bank lending activity could continue to temper broader consumer demand and core inflation [tier 4].
  • What would move this number most. The magnitude of the base effect from October 2025 compared to the actual non-seasonally adjusted monthly price changes in October 2026.
2026-11-04 09:13 51% 4 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. September 2026 year-on-year CPI-U inflation already reached +3.7%, up from +3.4% in August, showing upward short-term momentum [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. September 2026 seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI rose by a robust +0.6%, reflecting strong underlying price pressures entering the final quarter of the year [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. The 3.7% threshold is elevated compared to the long-term historical average, and seasonal adjustments or potential dips in volatile components like energy could pull the non-seasonally adjusted YoY rate down slightly [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Tight bank lending practices outlined in recent Fed survey data reflect broader financial conditions designed to curb demand and slow inflation [tier 4].
  • What would move this number most. The exact magnitude of non-seasonally adjusted monthly price shifts in energy and housing relative to October 2025 base effects.
2026-11-03 09:13 53% 2 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Year-on-year CPI-U accelerated from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September 2026, supported by strong month-on-month momentum (+0.6% seasonally adjusted) [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Unadjusted October CPI frequently experiences autumn seasonal cooling or stabilization, which could drag the 12-month rate slightly below the 3.7% threshold [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. The magnitude of the October 2026 month-on-month unadjusted price change compared to October 2025.
2026-11-01 15:02 57% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. September 2026 inflation (3.7%) showed an acceleration from August (3.4%), establishing an upward trend [1].
  • What pushes it up. The September month-on-month increase of 0.6% seasonally adjusted is high, suggesting significant price momentum entering October [1].
  • What pushes it up. The threshold for a 'Yes' resolution (3.7%) is identical to the most recent official reading, meaning no further year-on-year acceleration is required for a positive outcome [1].
  • What pushes it down. The year-on-year figure is highly sensitive to the October 2025 base effect, which is not provided in the current data [1].
  • What pushes it down. The 0.6% month-on-month increase in September could be an anomaly that regresses in October if driven by volatile components [1].
  • What pushes it down. Tier 4 analysis of prediction markets shows significant bets on a lower outcome, suggesting market skepticism regarding the persistence of the current spike [0].
  • What would move this number most. The October 2025 month-on-month change, which determines the base effect for the October 2026 year-on-year calculation.