Will the U.S. unemployment rate for December 2026 be at least 4.1 %?
échéance 2027-01-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
49 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2027-01-20 from the FRED series UNRATE (civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, BLS data republished by FRED) shows for December 2026 a rate (one decimal) of at least 4.1 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not change the outcome). If the December 2026 value is not yet published on 2027-01-20, the check is repeated until 2027-01-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 4.1 % (October 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 52% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 4.1 %, reference 4.1 % in 2026-10). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- The baseline persistence of unemployment rates implies that over a short two-month horizon, the rate frequently remains flat or ticks upward [tier 1].
- Consumer and labor market expectations in recent surveys remain mixed rather than uniformly bullish [tier 2].
Ce qui fait descendre
- October 2026 showed broad-based labor market strength with 165,000 jobs added, beating forecasts across major sectors [tier 2].
- The unemployment rate declined into October to reach 4.1%, establishing downward momentum that could push the unrounded rate below 4.05% by December [tier 2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether November and December nonfarm payroll additions maintain the 150k+ pace or pull back, directly determining if the rate holds at 4.1% or rounds down to 4.0%.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2027-01-20 |
| Taux de base | 52% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 48 · 50 (écart 2 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-11-11 09:32 |
| Modèle | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-11-11 09:32 49% 33 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. The baseline persistence of unemployment rates implies that over a short two-month horizon, the rate frequently remains flat or ticks upward [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Consumer and labor market expectations in recent surveys remain mixed rather than uniformly bullish [tier 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. October 2026 showed broad-based labor market strength with 165,000 jobs added, beating forecasts across major sectors [tier 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The unemployment rate declined into October to reach 4.1%, establishing downward momentum that could push the unrounded rate below 4.05% by December [tier 2].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether November and December nonfarm payroll additions maintain the 150k+ pace or pull back, directly determining if the rate holds at 4.1% or rounds down to 4.0%.
2026-11-08 11:31 45% 10 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- Ce qui fait monter. Historical frequency of the series reaching the 4.1 % level is about 52 % [tier 1]
- Ce qui fait monter. Current unemployment already at 4.1 % suggests it could stay at or above that level [tier 2]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports show the rate fell to 4.1 % and job growth is strong, indicating a possible further decline below 4.1 % [tier 2]
- Ce qui fait descendre. The downward trend in unemployment over recent months pushes the probability lower [tier 2]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The actual December 2026 unemployment figure when released; any revision to the October figure could shift the trend.