Will the U.S. unemployment rate for December 2026 be at least 4.1 %?
deadline 2027-01-20
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
49%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2027-01-20 from the FRED series UNRATE (civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, BLS data republished by FRED) shows for December 2026 a rate (one decimal) of at least 4.1 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not change the outcome). If the December 2026 value is not yet published on 2027-01-20, the check is repeated until 2027-01-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 4.1 % (October 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 52% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 4.1 %, reference 4.1 % in 2026-10). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- The baseline persistence of unemployment rates implies that over a short two-month horizon, the rate frequently remains flat or ticks upward [tier 1].
- Consumer and labor market expectations in recent surveys remain mixed rather than uniformly bullish [tier 2].
What pushes it down
- October 2026 showed broad-based labor market strength with 165,000 jobs added, beating forecasts across major sectors [tier 2].
- The unemployment rate declined into October to reach 4.1%, establishing downward momentum that could push the unrounded rate below 4.05% by December [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Whether November and December nonfarm payroll additions maintain the 150k+ pace or pull back, directly determining if the rate holds at 4.1% or rounds down to 4.0%.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-01-20 |
| Base rate | 52% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 6 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 48 · 50 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-11 09:32 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-11 09:32 49% 33 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. The baseline persistence of unemployment rates implies that over a short two-month horizon, the rate frequently remains flat or ticks upward [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Consumer and labor market expectations in recent surveys remain mixed rather than uniformly bullish [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. October 2026 showed broad-based labor market strength with 165,000 jobs added, beating forecasts across major sectors [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. The unemployment rate declined into October to reach 4.1%, establishing downward momentum that could push the unrounded rate below 4.05% by December [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether November and December nonfarm payroll additions maintain the 150k+ pace or pull back, directly determining if the rate holds at 4.1% or rounds down to 4.0%.
2026-11-08 11:31 45% 10 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Historical frequency of the series reaching the 4.1 % level is about 52 % [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. Current unemployment already at 4.1 % suggests it could stay at or above that level [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Recent reports show the rate fell to 4.1 % and job growth is strong, indicating a possible further decline below 4.1 % [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. The downward trend in unemployment over recent months pushes the probability lower [tier 2]
- What would move this number most. The actual December 2026 unemployment figure when released; any revision to the October figure could shift the trend.