L'inflation britannique d'octobre 2026 sera-t-elle d'au moins 3,5 % sur un an (CPI, ensemble), selon la première valeur publiée par l'Office for National Statistics au plus tard le 20 novembre 2026 ?
échéance 2026-11-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 2
70 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Oui si l'ONS publie, au plus tard le 20 novembre 2026, un taux d'inflation CPI sur 12 mois (ensemble) pour octobre 2026 de 3,5 % ou plus (première valeur publiée, arrondie par l'ONS). Une valeur inférieure, ou aucune publication à cette date, vaut Non.
État de départ vérifié
Pour septembre 2026, la presse (21 octobre 2026) indique une inflation CPI britannique de 3,5 % (août : 3,1 %) (à vérifier sur ons.gov.uk). La publication d'octobre est prévue le 18 novembre 2026 à 07 h 00, heure britannique (calendrier de l'ONS). Le seuil est égal à la valeur de septembre. Les prévisions ne sont pas utilisées comme preuve.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- September 2026 CPI reached 3.5%, continuing an upward trend from 3.1% in August [Hand-verified]
- Reuters reports that UK inflation and borrowing are climbing ahead of the budget [1]
- CNBC is already providing a breakdown of October 2026 inflation components, suggesting significant upward pressure is being analyzed by major outlets [0]
- ONS data on private rent and house prices for October indicates rising costs in key components of the CPI basket [6]
Ce qui fait descendre
- The Bank of England's restrictive monetary policy and 2% inflation target exert long-term downward pressure on price growth
- Year-on-year calculations are sensitive to base effects from October 2025, which could potentially lower the headline rate
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The specific impact of energy price adjustments and services inflation, which are volatile and will only be confirmed in the official ONS release on 18 November.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-11-20 |
| Taux de base | 25% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 2 · 4 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 68 · 72 (écart 4 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-11-14 09:20 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-11-14 09:20 70% 10 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 CPI reached 3.5%, continuing an upward trend from 3.1% in August [Hand-verified]
- Ce qui fait monter. Reuters reports that UK inflation and borrowing are climbing ahead of the budget [1]
- Ce qui fait monter. CNBC is already providing a breakdown of October 2026 inflation components, suggesting significant upward pressure is being analyzed by major outlets [0]
- Ce qui fait monter. ONS data on private rent and house prices for October indicates rising costs in key components of the CPI basket [6]
- Ce qui fait descendre. The Bank of England's restrictive monetary policy and 2% inflation target exert long-term downward pressure on price growth
- Ce qui fait descendre. Year-on-year calculations are sensitive to base effects from October 2025, which could potentially lower the headline rate
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The specific impact of energy price adjustments and services inflation, which are volatile and will only be confirmed in the official ONS release on 18 November.
2026-11-13 09:07 68% 10 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. UK CPI inflation showed a significant upward trend in the previous two months, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September [Starting State].
- Ce qui fait monter. Tier 2 reporting indicates that inflation was 'climbing' as of late October, suggesting continued upward momentum [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. October is a month typically associated with the UK energy price cap reset, which can provide a significant upward shock to headline CPI [General Knowledge].
- Ce qui fait monter. Private rent and house price indicators, which are significant components of the CPI basket, remain a focus of ONS reporting for the October period [6].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The delayed effects of previous monetary tightening by the Bank of England may begin to exert downward pressure on consumer demand and price growth [General Knowledge].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Favorable base effects from the previous year could lead to a lower year-on-year calculation even if monthly prices remain stable [General Knowledge].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the magnitude of the October energy price cap adjustment and its weight in the final ONS calculation.
2026-11-12 09:13 63% 9 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. UK CPI inflation showed significant upward momentum, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September [0, tier 2].
- Ce qui fait monter. Press reports indicate that inflation and government borrowing were climbing in the period leading up to the October budget [0, tier 2].
- Ce qui fait monter. Housing and rent costs, which are significant components of the CPI basket, remain a focus of official reporting for October [5, tier 4].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Restrictive monetary policy and high interest rates are currently being used to dampen inflationary pressures [0, tier 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Potential base effects from October 2025 could lead to a lower year-on-year comparison even if monthly prices remain stable.
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The specific impact of the October energy price cap adjustment and the comparison against the price index level from October 2025.
2026-11-11 09:23 57% 9 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. UK CPI inflation showed upward momentum heading into autumn, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September 2026 [tier 1, tier 2: article 0].
- Ce qui fait monter. October typically sees changes in regulated utility price caps and renewed service sector pricing pressures that can maintain or increase annual rates [tier 2: article 0].
- Ce qui fait descendre. A minor decrease of just 0.1 percentage point to 3.4% would trigger a negative resolution, making the outcome sensitive to small month-to-month fluctuations in volatile components like fuel or airfares [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Tight monetary policy and broader disinflationary trends exert downward pressure on core components, which could trim the headline rate [tier 2: article 0].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The impact of autumn energy price cap adjustments and volatile transport components on the October 2026 index calculation.
2026-11-10 09:06 54% 6 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. UK CPI inflation showed upward momentum leading into October, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September 2026 [tier 2, 0].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Base effects from October 2025 or potential moderating price pressures in goods and services could cause the year-on-year rate to drop slightly below the 3.5% threshold [tier 2, 0].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Energy price adjustments and autumn service sector inflation momentum relative to October 2025 base levels.