Will UK consumer price inflation for October 2026 be at least 3.5% year on year (CPI, all items), according to the first figure published by the Office for National Statistics on or before 20 November 2026?

deadline 2026-11-20 confidence medium tier 2 evidence

70%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if the ONS publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a 12-month CPI inflation rate (all items) for October 2026 of 3.5% or more (first published value, as rounded by the ONS). A lower value, or no publication by that date, resolves No.

Verified starting state

For September 2026, press reports (21 October 2026) give UK CPI inflation at 3.5% (August: 3.1%) (to be checked on ons.gov.uk). The October release is scheduled for 18 November 2026 at 07:00 UK time (ONS release calendar). The threshold equals the September reading. Forecasts are not used as evidence.

What pushes it up

September 2026 CPI reached 3.5%, continuing an upward trend from 3.1% in August [Hand-verified]
Reuters reports that UK inflation and borrowing are climbing ahead of the budget [1]
CNBC is already providing a breakdown of October 2026 inflation components, suggesting significant upward pressure is being analyzed by major outlets [0]
ONS data on private rent and house prices for October indicates rising costs in key components of the CPI basket [6]

What pushes it down

The Bank of England's restrictive monetary policy and 2% inflation target exert long-term downward pressure on price growth
Year-on-year calculations are sensitive to base effects from October 2025, which could potentially lower the headline rate

What would move this number most

The specific impact of energy price adjustments and services inflation, which are volatile and will only be confirmed in the official ONS release on 18 November.

How this number is built

Deadline	2026-11-20
Base rate	25%
Best evidence	tier 2 · 4 article(s) used
Independent runs	68 · 72 (spread 4 pts)
Confidence	medium
Evidence cap	not triggered
Last revised	2026-11-14 09:20
Model	gemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consulted

Here's the inflation breakdown for October 2026 — in one charttier 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-10 UK inflation and borrowing climb before Healey’s first budgettier 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-21 Inflation in the UK: Economic indicatorstier 4 · The House of Commons Library · 2026-10-21 Private rent and house prices, UK: October 2026tier 4 · Office for National Statistics · 2026-10-21

Probability history

2026-11-14 09:20 70% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview

What pushes it up. September 2026 CPI reached 3.5%, continuing an upward trend from 3.1% in August [Hand-verified]
What pushes it up. Reuters reports that UK inflation and borrowing are climbing ahead of the budget [1]
What pushes it up. CNBC is already providing a breakdown of October 2026 inflation components, suggesting significant upward pressure is being analyzed by major outlets [0]
What pushes it up. ONS data on private rent and house prices for October indicates rising costs in key components of the CPI basket [6]
What pushes it down. The Bank of England's restrictive monetary policy and 2% inflation target exert long-term downward pressure on price growth
What pushes it down. Year-on-year calculations are sensitive to base effects from October 2025, which could potentially lower the headline rate
What would move this number most. The specific impact of energy price adjustments and services inflation, which are volatile and will only be confirmed in the official ONS release on 18 November.

2026-11-13 09:07 68% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview

What pushes it up. UK CPI inflation showed a significant upward trend in the previous two months, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September [Starting State].
What pushes it up. Tier 2 reporting indicates that inflation was 'climbing' as of late October, suggesting continued upward momentum [1].
What pushes it up. October is a month typically associated with the UK energy price cap reset, which can provide a significant upward shock to headline CPI [General Knowledge].
What pushes it up. Private rent and house price indicators, which are significant components of the CPI basket, remain a focus of ONS reporting for the October period [6].
What pushes it down. The delayed effects of previous monetary tightening by the Bank of England may begin to exert downward pressure on consumer demand and price growth [General Knowledge].
What pushes it down. Favorable base effects from the previous year could lead to a lower year-on-year calculation even if monthly prices remain stable [General Knowledge].
What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the magnitude of the October energy price cap adjustment and its weight in the final ONS calculation.

2026-11-12 09:13 63% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview

What pushes it up. UK CPI inflation showed significant upward momentum, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September [0, tier 2].
What pushes it up. Press reports indicate that inflation and government borrowing were climbing in the period leading up to the October budget [0, tier 2].
What pushes it up. Housing and rent costs, which are significant components of the CPI basket, remain a focus of official reporting for October [5, tier 4].
What pushes it down. Restrictive monetary policy and high interest rates are currently being used to dampen inflationary pressures [0, tier 2].
What pushes it down. Potential base effects from October 2025 could lead to a lower year-on-year comparison even if monthly prices remain stable.
What would move this number most. The specific impact of the October energy price cap adjustment and the comparison against the price index level from October 2025.

2026-11-11 09:23 57% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash

What pushes it up. UK CPI inflation showed upward momentum heading into autumn, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September 2026 [tier 1, tier 2: article 0].
What pushes it up. October typically sees changes in regulated utility price caps and renewed service sector pricing pressures that can maintain or increase annual rates [tier 2: article 0].
What pushes it down. A minor decrease of just 0.1 percentage point to 3.4% would trigger a negative resolution, making the outcome sensitive to small month-to-month fluctuations in volatile components like fuel or airfares [tier 1].
What pushes it down. Tight monetary policy and broader disinflationary trends exert downward pressure on core components, which could trim the headline rate [tier 2: article 0].
What would move this number most. The impact of autumn energy price cap adjustments and volatile transport components on the October 2026 index calculation.

2026-11-10 09:06 54% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash

What pushes it up. UK CPI inflation showed upward momentum leading into October, rising from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September 2026 [tier 2, 0].
What pushes it down. Base effects from October 2025 or potential moderating price pressures in goods and services could cause the year-on-year rate to drop slightly below the 3.5% threshold [tier 2, 0].
What would move this number most. Energy price adjustments and autumn service sector inflation momentum relative to October 2025 base levels.