La Banque de réserve d'Australie relèvera-t-elle son taux directeur lors de sa réunion de décembre 2026, avec une décision annoncée au plus tard le 8 décembre 2026 ?

échéance 2026-12-08 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 2

18 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Oui si la Banque de réserve d'Australie annonce, au plus tard le 8 décembre 2026, un taux cible (cash rate) supérieur à celui en vigueur juste avant sa réunion de décembre 2026. Un taux maintenu ou abaissé, ou aucune décision annoncée à cette date, vaut Non.

État de départ vérifié

Le taux cible (cash rate) était à 4,60 % au 31 octobre 2026, après une hausse de 25 points de base le 29 septembre 2026 (selon des pages tierces ; à vérifier sur rba.gov.au). Le conseil se réunit les 2-3 novembre et 7-8 décembre 2026, la décision de décembre étant attendue le 8 décembre (calendriers tiers). La question porte sur une hausse à la réunion de décembre par rapport au taux en vigueur juste avant, de sorte qu'un mouvement en novembre ne la tranche pas. Les prévisions ne sont pas utilisées comme preuve.

Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

Governor Bullock stated that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes, indicating a hawkish policy stance [0]
Inflation and market pressures are reportedly intensifying, which may force the RBA's hand [4]

Ce qui fait descendre

The RBA has already hiked rates in the two previous consecutive meetings (September and November), reaching an 18-year high of 4.85% [1], [2]
A split vote during the November meeting suggests the Board is divided and may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle [8]
Central banks typically pause after significant hikes to observe the lagging effects on the economy before moving again [0]

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

The release of updated inflation or employment data between the November and December meetings could either confirm the need for another hike or justify a pause.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance	2026-12-08
Taux de base	20%
Meilleure preuve	niveau 2 · 4 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations	15 · 20 (écart 5 pts)
Confiance	moyenne
Plafond de preuve	non déclenché
Révisée le	2026-11-14 09:24
Modèle	gemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consultées

RBA interest rates: Bullock says ‘pain now’ will prevent worse later as Reserve Bank hikes rates for fifth timeniveau 2 · The Guardian · 2026-11-03 Live: RBA hikes cash rate to 4.85% – the highest since 2008niveau 2 · Forbes Australia · 2026-11-03 Australian Financial Review Latest: RBA Rates Hit 4.85% as Inflation and Market Pressures Intensifyniveau 4 · Aktualita.co · 2026-11-14 RBA hikes interest rate to 4.85%, but a split vote hints the end may be nearniveau 4 · Market Index · 2026-11-03

Historique de la probabilité

2026-11-14 09:24 18% 21 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. Governor Bullock stated that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes, indicating a hawkish policy stance [0]
Ce qui fait monter. Inflation and market pressures are reportedly intensifying, which may force the RBA's hand [4]
Ce qui fait descendre. The RBA has already hiked rates in the two previous consecutive meetings (September and November), reaching an 18-year high of 4.85% [1], [2]
Ce qui fait descendre. A split vote during the November meeting suggests the Board is divided and may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle [8]
Ce qui fait descendre. Central banks typically pause after significant hikes to observe the lagging effects on the economy before moving again [0]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The release of updated inflation or employment data between the November and December meetings could either confirm the need for another hike or justify a pause.

2026-11-13 12:01 20% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. Governor Bullock's hawkish rhetoric ('pain now') indicates a strong commitment to further tightening if inflation remains persistent [0, Tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. The RBA has maintained significant momentum in its tightening cycle, with the November hike being the fifth in a series of recent increases [0, Tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. The cash rate has reached 4.85%, its highest level since 2008, which typically prompts a more cautious 'wait and see' approach to avoid over-tightening [1, Tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. The short five-week interval between the November 3 and December 8 meetings provides limited new quarterly economic data for the Board to justify a consecutive hike [Prompt]
Ce qui fait descendre. Tier 4 reports suggest the November decision was a split vote and that major bank economists expect a hold in December, though these signals lack Tier 2 corroboration [6, 7, 8]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The release of monthly inflation or labor market data between the November and December meetings that could either confirm or challenge the need for further tightening.

2026-11-12 09:18 18% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The RBA Governor stated that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes, indicating a hawkish stance on inflation [0][2].
Ce qui fait monter. The RBA has maintained momentum in its tightening cycle, having recently implemented its fifth rate hike [0][2].
Ce qui fait descendre. The November rate hike was the result of a split vote, suggesting the Board is divided and nearing the end of its tightening cycle [6][4].
Ce qui fait descendre. Major financial institution economists (CommBank) now expect the RBA to remain on hold following the November increase [7][4].
Ce qui fait descendre. The cash rate has reached 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, which significantly increases the restrictive pressure on the economy and the risk of over-tightening [1][2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The release of any updated inflation or employment data between the November and December meetings that could either confirm the need for a pause or force a final hike.

2026-11-11 12:00 22% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. RBA Governor Bullock noted that 'pain now' is necessary to control inflation, signaling strong hawkish commitment after hikes in September and November [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. The November rate hike to 4.85% was decided by a split vote, indicating increasing board resistance to further tightening [tier 4, corroborated by tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Cash rate has reached 4.85%, its highest level since 2008, raising the threshold for additional consecutive rate increases [tier 2]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming economic data releases (especially monthly inflation indicators) before the December 7-8 meeting that could force another move despite board divisions.

2026-11-10 12:03 19% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. Governor Bullock has maintained a hawkish stance, stating that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes later [0].
Ce qui fait monter. The RBA is in an established tightening trend, having raised rates five times recently, including a 25 bp hike in November 2026 [0, 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The November rate hike was reportedly a split decision, suggesting the RBA Board is nearing the end of its tightening cycle [6, 8].
Ce qui fait descendre. Major financial institutions, such as CommBank, expect the RBA to remain on hold in December following the November increase [7].
Ce qui fait descendre. The cash rate is currently at 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, which increases the pressure on the Board to pause and assess the impact on the economy [1, 5].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The release of any significant inflation or employment data between November 10 and the December 8 meeting that could force the Board's hand despite the reported internal split.

2026-11-09 09:16 24% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash

Ce qui fait monter. RBA Governor Bullock signaled ongoing inflation concerns, stating 'pain now' will prevent worse outcomes later [tier 2, #0].
Ce qui fait monter. The RBA has shown momentum with consecutive rate increases in September and November 2026 [tier 1 state, tier 2, #0, #1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The cash rate target has reached 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, increasing the restrictive impact on the economy [tier 2, #1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Reports of a split vote among board members at the November meeting indicate diminishing consensus for further immediate rate rises [tier 4, #6, #8].
Ce qui fait descendre. Major bank economic analyses suggest the RBA is likely to pause policy tightening at the December meeting [tier 4, #7].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming economic data releases prior to December 8, particularly monthly inflation and labor market metrics, that could force another rate hike if upside risks materialize.

2026-11-08 09:19 20% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. Governor Bullock emphasized that 'pain now' is necessary to curb inflation, suggesting a continued hawkish stance [0]
Ce qui fait monter. The RBA has already hiked five times in this cycle, demonstrating a commitment to reaching inflation targets [0]
Ce qui fait descendre. The RBA just raised the cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, which typically precedes a period of observation [1, 5]
Ce qui fait descendre. Reports of a split vote during the November meeting suggest the Board is nearing the end of its tightening cycle [6, 8]
Ce qui fait descendre. Major bank economists expect the RBA to remain on hold in December following the November increase [7]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Unexpectedly high inflation data or strong employment figures released between the November and December meetings.

2026-10-31 16:14 35% 3 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. Recent market commentary suggests a fifth hike is plausible given rising inflation risks [tier 4]
Ce qui fait descendre. The RBA has already raised rates in September; further tightening may be limited by the need to assess inflation data and the risk of overtightening [tier 4]
Ce qui fait descendre. Only tier‑4 speculation is available, which is weak evidence and cannot be taken as firm intent [tier 4]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Inflation readings and the outcome of the November meeting will most affect the December decision