Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise its policy interest rate at its December 2026 meeting, with the decision announced on or before 8 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-08
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
18%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the Reserve Bank of Australia announces, on or before 8 December 2026, a cash rate target higher than the one in force immediately before its December 2026 meeting. A rate kept unchanged or lowered, or no decision announced by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The cash rate target stood at 4.60% as of 31 October 2026, after a 25 bp rise on 29 September 2026 (per third-party pages; to be checked on rba.gov.au). The Board meets on 2-3 November and 7-8 December 2026, with the December decision expected on 8 December (third-party calendars). The question is about a rise at the December meeting relative to the rate in force just before it, so a November move does not decide it. Forecasts are not used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- Governor Bullock stated that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes, indicating a hawkish policy stance [0]
- Inflation and market pressures are reportedly intensifying, which may force the RBA's hand [4]
What pushes it down
- The RBA has already hiked rates in the two previous consecutive meetings (September and November), reaching an 18-year high of 4.85% [1], [2]
- A split vote during the November meeting suggests the Board is divided and may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle [8]
- Central banks typically pause after significant hikes to observe the lagging effects on the economy before moving again [0]
What would move this number most
The release of updated inflation or employment data between the November and December meetings could either confirm the need for another hike or justify a pause.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-08 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 15 · 20 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-14 09:24 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-14 09:24 18% 21 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Governor Bullock stated that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes, indicating a hawkish policy stance [0]
- What pushes it up. Inflation and market pressures are reportedly intensifying, which may force the RBA's hand [4]
- What pushes it down. The RBA has already hiked rates in the two previous consecutive meetings (September and November), reaching an 18-year high of 4.85% [1], [2]
- What pushes it down. A split vote during the November meeting suggests the Board is divided and may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle [8]
- What pushes it down. Central banks typically pause after significant hikes to observe the lagging effects on the economy before moving again [0]
- What would move this number most. The release of updated inflation or employment data between the November and December meetings could either confirm the need for another hike or justify a pause.
2026-11-13 12:01 20% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Governor Bullock's hawkish rhetoric ('pain now') indicates a strong commitment to further tightening if inflation remains persistent [0, Tier 2]
- What pushes it up. The RBA has maintained significant momentum in its tightening cycle, with the November hike being the fifth in a series of recent increases [0, Tier 2]
- What pushes it down. The cash rate has reached 4.85%, its highest level since 2008, which typically prompts a more cautious 'wait and see' approach to avoid over-tightening [1, Tier 2]
- What pushes it down. The short five-week interval between the November 3 and December 8 meetings provides limited new quarterly economic data for the Board to justify a consecutive hike [Prompt]
- What pushes it down. Tier 4 reports suggest the November decision was a split vote and that major bank economists expect a hold in December, though these signals lack Tier 2 corroboration [6, 7, 8]
- What would move this number most. The release of monthly inflation or labor market data between the November and December meetings that could either confirm or challenge the need for further tightening.
2026-11-12 09:18 18% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The RBA Governor stated that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes, indicating a hawkish stance on inflation [0][2].
- What pushes it up. The RBA has maintained momentum in its tightening cycle, having recently implemented its fifth rate hike [0][2].
- What pushes it down. The November rate hike was the result of a split vote, suggesting the Board is divided and nearing the end of its tightening cycle [6][4].
- What pushes it down. Major financial institution economists (CommBank) now expect the RBA to remain on hold following the November increase [7][4].
- What pushes it down. The cash rate has reached 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, which significantly increases the restrictive pressure on the economy and the risk of over-tightening [1][2].
- What would move this number most. The release of any updated inflation or employment data between the November and December meetings that could either confirm the need for a pause or force a final hike.
2026-11-11 12:00 22% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. RBA Governor Bullock noted that 'pain now' is necessary to control inflation, signaling strong hawkish commitment after hikes in September and November [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. The November rate hike to 4.85% was decided by a split vote, indicating increasing board resistance to further tightening [tier 4, corroborated by tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Cash rate has reached 4.85%, its highest level since 2008, raising the threshold for additional consecutive rate increases [tier 2]
- What would move this number most. Upcoming economic data releases (especially monthly inflation indicators) before the December 7-8 meeting that could force another move despite board divisions.
2026-11-10 12:03 19% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Governor Bullock has maintained a hawkish stance, stating that 'pain now' is necessary to prevent worse economic outcomes later [0].
- What pushes it up. The RBA is in an established tightening trend, having raised rates five times recently, including a 25 bp hike in November 2026 [0, 1].
- What pushes it down. The November rate hike was reportedly a split decision, suggesting the RBA Board is nearing the end of its tightening cycle [6, 8].
- What pushes it down. Major financial institutions, such as CommBank, expect the RBA to remain on hold in December following the November increase [7].
- What pushes it down. The cash rate is currently at 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, which increases the pressure on the Board to pause and assess the impact on the economy [1, 5].
- What would move this number most. The release of any significant inflation or employment data between November 10 and the December 8 meeting that could force the Board's hand despite the reported internal split.
2026-11-09 09:16 24% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. RBA Governor Bullock signaled ongoing inflation concerns, stating 'pain now' will prevent worse outcomes later [tier 2, #0].
- What pushes it up. The RBA has shown momentum with consecutive rate increases in September and November 2026 [tier 1 state, tier 2, #0, #1].
- What pushes it down. The cash rate target has reached 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, increasing the restrictive impact on the economy [tier 2, #1].
- What pushes it down. Reports of a split vote among board members at the November meeting indicate diminishing consensus for further immediate rate rises [tier 4, #6, #8].
- What pushes it down. Major bank economic analyses suggest the RBA is likely to pause policy tightening at the December meeting [tier 4, #7].
- What would move this number most. Upcoming economic data releases prior to December 8, particularly monthly inflation and labor market metrics, that could force another rate hike if upside risks materialize.
2026-11-08 09:19 20% 19 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Governor Bullock emphasized that 'pain now' is necessary to curb inflation, suggesting a continued hawkish stance [0]
- What pushes it up. The RBA has already hiked five times in this cycle, demonstrating a commitment to reaching inflation targets [0]
- What pushes it down. The RBA just raised the cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, which typically precedes a period of observation [1, 5]
- What pushes it down. Reports of a split vote during the November meeting suggest the Board is nearing the end of its tightening cycle [6, 8]
- What pushes it down. Major bank economists expect the RBA to remain on hold in December following the November increase [7]
- What would move this number most. Unexpectedly high inflation data or strong employment figures released between the November and December meetings.
2026-10-31 16:14 35% 3 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Recent market commentary suggests a fifth hike is plausible given rising inflation risks [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. The RBA has already raised rates in September; further tightening may be limited by the need to assess inflation data and the risk of overtightening [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. Only tier‑4 speculation is available, which is weak evidence and cannot be taken as firm intent [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. Inflation readings and the outcome of the November meeting will most affect the December decision