Finance · English

Will total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 240,000 jobs in December 2026 (month-on-month change, seasonally adjusted)?

échéance 2027-01-20 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 1
30 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2027-01-20 from the FRED series PAYEMS (all employees, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted, thousands of persons (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation), month-on-month change, republished by FRED; the first published estimate is the one that counts) shows for December 2026 a month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment (the level for December 2026 minus the level for November 2026, in thousands of persons), of at least 240,000 jobs. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual benchmark revisions, do not change the outcome). If the December 2026 value is not yet published on 2027-01-20, the check is repeated until 2027-01-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: +165 thousand jobs (October 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 31% of past two-month changes in the monthly job gain (month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands of persons) since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 240 thousand jobs, reference +165 thousand jobs in 2026-10). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Whether holiday seasonal hiring and broader economic growth spur enough payroll acceleration in December to cross the 240,000 mark.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2027-01-20
Taux de base31%
Meilleure preuveniveau 1 · 4 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations28 · 32 (écart 4 pts)
Confiancemoyenne
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-11-11 12:03
Modèlegemini-3.5-flash

Sources consultées

The October Jobs Report’s Hidden Warning: 339,000 More Underemployedniveau 2 · Forbes · 2026-11-09US labor market regains ground as job growth surges, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%niveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-11-06Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%niveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-02U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - official data series that settles this questionniveau 1 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 2026-11-11

Historique de la probabilité

2026-11-11 12:03 30% 15 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. The labor market rebounded strongly in October after a sluggish September print, demonstrating underlying economic strength heading into Q4 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. A target of 240,000 jobs requires a substantial jump from October's +165,000 level and September's low gain of 29,000 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Signs of labor market undercurrent softness persist, such as an increase of 339,000 underemployed workers reported in October [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether holiday seasonal hiring and broader economic growth spur enough payroll acceleration in December to cross the 240,000 mark.
2026-11-08 11:32 37% 7 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
  • Ce qui fait monter. Recent labor market regain and unemployment falling to 4.1% suggest continued hiring momentum (Reuters) [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Live updates highlight strength after stock market dip, implying robust hiring (NYT) [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. October 2026 payroll gain was only +165 k, well below the 240 k threshold (Reuters) [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. No forward‑looking announcements or policy changes indicating a surge in hiring
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The actual November and December nonfarm payroll numbers when released