Will total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 240,000 jobs in December 2026 (month-on-month change, seasonally adjusted)?
deadline 2027-01-20
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
30%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2027-01-20 from the FRED series PAYEMS (all employees, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted, thousands of persons (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation), month-on-month change, republished by FRED; the first published estimate is the one that counts) shows for December 2026 a month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment (the level for December 2026 minus the level for November 2026, in thousands of persons), of at least 240,000 jobs. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual benchmark revisions, do not change the outcome). If the December 2026 value is not yet published on 2027-01-20, the check is repeated until 2027-01-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: +165 thousand jobs (October 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 31% of past two-month changes in the monthly job gain (month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands of persons) since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 240 thousand jobs, reference +165 thousand jobs in 2026-10). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- The labor market rebounded strongly in October after a sluggish September print, demonstrating underlying economic strength heading into Q4 [tier 2].
What pushes it down
- A target of 240,000 jobs requires a substantial jump from October's +165,000 level and September's low gain of 29,000 [tier 2].
- Signs of labor market undercurrent softness persist, such as an increase of 339,000 underemployed workers reported in October [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Whether holiday seasonal hiring and broader economic growth spur enough payroll acceleration in December to cross the 240,000 mark.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-01-20 |
| Base rate | 31% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 28 · 32 (spread 4 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-11 12:03 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-11 12:03 30% 15 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. The labor market rebounded strongly in October after a sluggish September print, demonstrating underlying economic strength heading into Q4 [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. A target of 240,000 jobs requires a substantial jump from October's +165,000 level and September's low gain of 29,000 [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Signs of labor market undercurrent softness persist, such as an increase of 339,000 underemployed workers reported in October [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether holiday seasonal hiring and broader economic growth spur enough payroll acceleration in December to cross the 240,000 mark.
2026-11-08 11:32 37% 7 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Recent labor market regain and unemployment falling to 4.1% suggest continued hiring momentum (Reuters) [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Live updates highlight strength after stock market dip, implying robust hiring (NYT) [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. October 2026 payroll gain was only +165 k, well below the 240 k threshold (Reuters) [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. No forward‑looking announcements or policy changes indicating a surge in hiring
- What would move this number most. The actual November and December nonfarm payroll numbers when released