Will total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 110,000 jobs in November 2026 (month-on-month change, seasonally adjusted)?
échéance 2026-12-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
48 %estimation Asturna
⚠ Plafond de preuve appliqué : le modèle proposait 75 %, ramené à 48 % faute de sources assez solides pour justifier l'écart au taux de base.
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series PAYEMS (all employees, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted, thousands of persons (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation), month-on-month change, republished by FRED; the first published estimate is the one that counts) shows for November 2026 a month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment (the level for November 2026 minus the level for October 2026, in thousands of persons), of at least 110,000 jobs. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual benchmark revisions, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: +29 thousand jobs (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 28% of past two-month changes in the monthly job gain (month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands of persons) since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 110 thousand jobs, reference +29 thousand jobs in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- October 2026 nonfarm payrolls grew by 165,000, significantly exceeding the 110,000 threshold and indicating a strong rebound from September [0, 1].
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October, signaling a tightening and resilient labor market [0, 1].
- Weekly jobless claims reached near 57-year lows in late October, suggesting very low layoff activity [6].
- Job openings showed a significant gain in September, pointing to continued robust demand for labor [4, 5].
Ce qui fait descendre
- September 2026 saw a sharp slowdown to only 29,000 jobs, demonstrating that the labor market can experience sudden, unexpected volatility [7, 8].
- The historical base rate for reaching the 110,000 threshold from a 29,000 low point is statistically low at 28%.
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether the October surge represents a sustained return to growth or a temporary fluctuation in a cooling labor market.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-20 |
| Taux de base | 28% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 8 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 48 · 48 (écart 0 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | appliqué : 75 % ramené à 48 % |
| Révisée le | 2026-11-07 20:06 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Jobs Report Live Updates: U.S Adds 165,000 Jobs in October, Unemployment Falls to 4.1%niveau 2 · The New York Times · 2026-11-07US labor market regains ground as job growth surges, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%niveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-11-06Job openings posted big September gain in positive sign for labor market ahead of payrolls reportniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-03New data shows labor market strength in Septemberniveau 2 · Axios · 2026-11-03US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows, underscore labor market stabilityniveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-22Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%niveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-02US job growth undershoots expectations in September, but labor market remains stableniveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-02U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - official data series that settles this questionniveau 1 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 2026-11-07
Historique de la probabilité
2026-11-07 20:06 48% 36 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. October 2026 nonfarm payrolls grew by 165,000, significantly exceeding the 110,000 threshold and indicating a strong rebound from September [0, 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October, signaling a tightening and resilient labor market [0, 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims reached near 57-year lows in late October, suggesting very low layoff activity [6].
- Ce qui fait monter. Job openings showed a significant gain in September, pointing to continued robust demand for labor [4, 5].
- Ce qui fait descendre. September 2026 saw a sharp slowdown to only 29,000 jobs, demonstrating that the labor market can experience sudden, unexpected volatility [7, 8].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The historical base rate for reaching the 110,000 threshold from a 29,000 low point is statistically low at 28%.
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the October surge represents a sustained return to growth or a temporary fluctuation in a cooling labor market.
2026-10-30 15:51 33% 4 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- Ce qui fait monter. Low weekly jobless claims suggest a still‑tight labor market and support higher hiring (tier 2)
- Ce qui fait monter. August payrolls blew past expectations, indicating strong recent hiring momentum (tier 2)
- Ce qui fait descendre. September payrolls rose by only 29,000, showing a recent slowdown in job growth (tier 2)
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The actual November payroll report outcome; any unexpected economic shock or policy change could swing the result.