Will total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 110,000 jobs in November 2026 (month-on-month change, seasonally adjusted)?
deadline 2026-12-20
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
48%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 75%, brought back to 48% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series PAYEMS (all employees, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted, thousands of persons (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation), month-on-month change, republished by FRED; the first published estimate is the one that counts) shows for November 2026 a month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment (the level for November 2026 minus the level for October 2026, in thousands of persons), of at least 110,000 jobs. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual benchmark revisions, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: +29 thousand jobs (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 28% of past two-month changes in the monthly job gain (month-on-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands of persons) since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 110 thousand jobs, reference +29 thousand jobs in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- October 2026 nonfarm payrolls grew by 165,000, significantly exceeding the 110,000 threshold and indicating a strong rebound from September [0, 1].
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October, signaling a tightening and resilient labor market [0, 1].
- Weekly jobless claims reached near 57-year lows in late October, suggesting very low layoff activity [6].
- Job openings showed a significant gain in September, pointing to continued robust demand for labor [4, 5].
What pushes it down
- September 2026 saw a sharp slowdown to only 29,000 jobs, demonstrating that the labor market can experience sudden, unexpected volatility [7, 8].
- The historical base rate for reaching the 110,000 threshold from a 29,000 low point is statistically low at 28%.
What would move this number most
Whether the October surge represents a sustained return to growth or a temporary fluctuation in a cooling labor market.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-20 |
| Base rate | 28% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 8 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 48 · 48 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 75% brought back to 48% |
| Last revised | 2026-11-07 20:06 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Jobs Report Live Updates: U.S Adds 165,000 Jobs in October, Unemployment Falls to 4.1%tier 2 · The New York Times · 2026-11-07US labor market regains ground as job growth surges, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%tier 2 · Reuters · 2026-11-06Job openings posted big September gain in positive sign for labor market ahead of payrolls reporttier 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-03New data shows labor market strength in Septembertier 2 · Axios · 2026-11-03US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows, underscore labor market stabilitytier 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-22Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%tier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-02US job growth undershoots expectations in September, but labor market remains stabletier 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-02U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - official data series that settles this questiontier 1 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 2026-11-07
Probability history
2026-11-07 20:06 48% 36 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. October 2026 nonfarm payrolls grew by 165,000, significantly exceeding the 110,000 threshold and indicating a strong rebound from September [0, 1].
- What pushes it up. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October, signaling a tightening and resilient labor market [0, 1].
- What pushes it up. Weekly jobless claims reached near 57-year lows in late October, suggesting very low layoff activity [6].
- What pushes it up. Job openings showed a significant gain in September, pointing to continued robust demand for labor [4, 5].
- What pushes it down. September 2026 saw a sharp slowdown to only 29,000 jobs, demonstrating that the labor market can experience sudden, unexpected volatility [7, 8].
- What pushes it down. The historical base rate for reaching the 110,000 threshold from a 29,000 low point is statistically low at 28%.
- What would move this number most. Whether the October surge represents a sustained return to growth or a temporary fluctuation in a cooling labor market.
2026-10-30 15:51 33% 4 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Low weekly jobless claims suggest a still‑tight labor market and support higher hiring (tier 2)
- What pushes it up. August payrolls blew past expectations, indicating strong recent hiring momentum (tier 2)
- What pushes it down. September payrolls rose by only 29,000, showing a recent slowdown in job growth (tier 2)
- What would move this number most. The actual November payroll report outcome; any unexpected economic shock or policy change could swing the result.