Le niveau des offres d'emploi JOLTS américaines de septembre 2026, tel que publié pour la première fois, sera-t-il inférieur à 7,0 millions ?
échéance 2026-11-04
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
Résolue
NON — 2026-11-04
FRED JTSJOL, 2026-09 = 7523 thousand, lu le 2026-11-04 (seuil < 7000 thousand) ·
source
62 %estimation Asturna
Probabilité retenue pour le score : 62 % (estimation du 3 nov. 2026, la dernière avant le jour de l'événement, 4 nov. 2026). Les révisions du jour de l'événement ou d'après n'entrent pas dans le score.
Critère de résolution
Oui si le niveau total des offres d'emploi hors agriculture (corrigé des variations saisonnières, en milliers) pour septembre 2026, tel que publié pour la première fois dans le communiqué JOLTS du Bureau of Labor Statistics (prévu le 3 novembre 2026 à 10 h, heure de l'Est), est strictement inférieur à 7 000 milliers. Une révision ultérieure ne compte pas. Une valeur de 7 000 milliers ou plus vaut Non. Si le communiqué n'est pas publié au 4 novembre 2026, la question est annulée et n'est pas notée.
État de départ vérifié
Communiqué JOLTS du BLS du 29 septembre 2026 : les offres d'emploi étaient de 7 079 milliers en août 2026 (décrites comme peu changées), après 7 335 milliers en juillet, 7 182 milliers en juin et 7 537 milliers en mai (valeurs telles qu'affichées dans ce communiqué). Le même communiqué indique que le rapport de septembre 2026 est prévu le mardi 3 novembre 2026 à 10 h (heure de l'Est). Le seuil de 7,0 millions se situe environ 79 milliers sous le dernier niveau publié. Aucun taux de base n'a été calculé pour cette question ; le taux utilisé sera un taux deviné.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- The August 2026 level of 7,079k is only 79k (1.1%) above the 7.0 million threshold, leaving a very thin margin for any further decline [1].
- The average monthly change over the last four reported months is a decline of 152k, which would put the September figure well below 7.0 million if the trend continues [1].
- Reports from Reuters and Quartz indicate a general downward trend in job openings as the labor market cools [0, 2].
- Tier 4 analysis suggests that labor market data has frequently been revised downward, reflecting a weakening environment [3].
Ce qui fait descendre
- The BLS described the August level as 'little changed,' which may signal a stabilization or plateauing of the recent decline [1].
- The JOLTS series is volatile, as evidenced by the 153k increase in July 2026 following a sharp drop in June [1].
- Earlier in the year (April 2026), job openings surged to 7.6 million, demonstrating that the labor market can still show unexpected strength [1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The inherent monthly volatility of the JOLTS data, which often sees swings of 150k to 350k, makes a 79k margin highly unpredictable.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-11-04 |
| Taux de base | 55% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 62 · 62 (écart 0 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-11-03 09:01 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-11-03 09:01 62% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The August 2026 level of 7,079k is only 79k (1.1%) above the 7.0 million threshold, leaving a very thin margin for any further decline [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The average monthly change over the last four reported months is a decline of 152k, which would put the September figure well below 7.0 million if the trend continues [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Reports from Reuters and Quartz indicate a general downward trend in job openings as the labor market cools [0, 2].
- Ce qui fait monter. Tier 4 analysis suggests that labor market data has frequently been revised downward, reflecting a weakening environment [3].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The BLS described the August level as 'little changed,' which may signal a stabilization or plateauing of the recent decline [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The JOLTS series is volatile, as evidenced by the 153k increase in July 2026 following a sharp drop in June [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Earlier in the year (April 2026), job openings surged to 7.6 million, demonstrating that the labor market can still show unexpected strength [1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The inherent monthly volatility of the JOLTS data, which often sees swings of 150k to 350k, makes a 79k margin highly unpredictable.
2026-11-02 09:05 64% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. The August 2026 JOLTS level stood at 7,079 thousand, requiring only a 80 thousand decline to break below the 7,000 thousand threshold [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The trajectory across summer 2026 shows a net decline in openings from 7,537 thousand in May to 7,079 thousand in August [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Monthly variation in seasonally adjusted JOLTS numbers frequently exceeds 100 to 200 thousand, making a sub-7.0 million printing readily achievable on noise alone [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. JOLTS numbers can rebound month-to-month, as seen in July 2026 when openings rose by 153 thousand over June [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The August level of 7,079 thousand was characterized as 'little changed', indicating potential short-term stabilization around 7.1 million [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The high monthly variance of JOLTS sampling noise, which can easily swing the figure by 150,000+ openings in either direction.
2026-11-01 09:06 65% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The August 2026 job openings level of 7.079 million is only 79,000 units above the 7.0 million threshold [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The broader trend from May to August 2026 shows a significant decline from 7.537 million to 7.079 million [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Recent monthly declines in June (-355k) and August (-256k) were much larger than the 79k buffer currently remaining [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Market commentary describes a 'low-hire, low-fire' pattern, consistent with a slow erosion of total openings [4].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The BLS described the August change as 'little changed,' which may indicate the downward momentum is stalling [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The data showed an increase of 153,000 openings between June and July, proving the trend is not strictly linear [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Round numbers like 7.0 million can sometimes act as a psychological support level in economic reporting [2].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The inherent volatility of the JOLTS data, where a minor monthly fluctuation of less than 1.2% in either direction determines the outcome.
2026-10-31 09:09 69% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The August level of 7,079 thousand is only 80 thousand above the threshold, requiring only a modest 1.1% decline to resolve Yes [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The overall trend from April (7.6 million) to August (7.08 million) shows a significant downward trajectory in job openings [1, 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Two of the last three months (June and August) saw declines much larger than the 80 thousand needed to cross the threshold [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Market analysts and wire services report a cooling labor market and a 'low-hire' pattern [0, 2, 6].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Job openings showed a rebound in July (7,335 thousand) after a drop in June, indicating that the downward trend is not strictly linear [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The BLS characterized the August level as 'little changed,' which could signal a stabilization or plateauing of job openings near the 7 million mark [1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the 'little changed' status in August signals a stabilization of the labor market or if the broader cooling trend will push the September figure below the 7.0 million mark.
2026-10-30 12:00 64% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. August 2026 JOLTS reported job openings at 7,079 thousand, just 79 thousand above the 7.0 million threshold [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The broader trend from May (7,537 thousand) to August (7,079 thousand) indicates gradual cooling in labor demand [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Reporting highlights a low-hire labor market environment with reduced hiring momentum [tier 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. JOLTS monthly figures exhibit high variance and bounced up previously between June (7,182 thousand) and July (7,335 thousand) [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. August job openings were described by the BLS as 'little changed', suggesting stabilization rather than a rapid decline [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The magnitude and direction of month-to-month noise in preliminary JOLTS sampling relative to the required 80 thousand drop.
2026-10-29 15:03 67% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The August 2026 job openings level of 7,079k is only 79k above the 7.0 million threshold [7].
- Ce qui fait monter. The labor market has shown a clear downward trend from 7.6 million in April to 7.079 million in August [1, 7].
- Ce qui fait monter. Recent monthly declines have been significantly larger than the 80k drop required to cross the threshold, such as the 256k drop in August and the 355k drop in June [7].
- Ce qui fait monter. Reports suggest that labor market data has been frequently revised downward, indicating a weaker underlying trend than initial prints might suggest [3].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described the August change as 'little changed,' which could signal a stabilization of the downward trend [7].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The labor market has shown volatility, including a 153k increase in job openings between June and July [7].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The market has been characterized as being in a 'low-hire, low-fire pattern,' which may lead to levels plateauing rather than continuing to fall [6].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the 'little changed' status of the August data marks the beginning of a plateau or if the broader cooling trend observed since April will persist into September.
2026-10-28 20:01 62% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. August 2026 job openings fell by 256 thousand to 7,079 thousand, leaving the level just 79 thousand above the 7.0 million mark [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The broader multi-month trend shows a gradual decline in openings from 7,537 thousand in May 2026 [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. JOLTS data exhibits significant month-to-month volatility, as seen when openings rebounded by 153 thousand between June and July 2026 [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The August change was officially described as 'little changed', suggesting potential stabilization above 7.0 million [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Month-to-month sampling noise and revisions in BLS labor market surveys.
2026-10-26 15:05 65% 5 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. The August 2026 job openings level of 7,079 thousand is only 79 thousand above the 7.0 million threshold, requiring less than a 1.2% decline to cross below it [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. The overall multi-month trend shows job openings declining from 7,537 thousand in May 2026 to 7,079 thousand in August 2026, indicating cooling labor demand [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Monthly JOLTS figures exhibit volatility and can rebound, as demonstrated by the increase from 7,182 thousand in June 2026 to 7,335 thousand in July 2026 [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described the August 2026 change as 'little changed', suggesting job openings level may be stabilizing near the 7.1 million mark rather than continuing a sharp drop [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The high month-to-month sampling noise and volatility in the JOLTS survey, where monthly swings regularly exceed 150,000 openings.
Post-mortem
Cette question étant résolue, chaque révision peut désormais être notée contre le résultat réel.
| 2026-10-26 15:05 | gemini-3.6-flash | 65% | 0.423 |
| 2026-10-28 20:01 | gemini-3.6-flash | 62% | 0.384 |
| 2026-10-29 15:03 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 67% | 0.449 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 | gemini-3.5-flash | 64% | 0.41 |
| 2026-10-31 09:09 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 69% | 0.476 |
| 2026-11-01 09:06 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 65% | 0.423 |
| 2026-11-02 09:05 | gemini-3.5-flash | 64% | 0.41 |
| 2026-11-03 09:01 | gemini-3-flash-preview | 62% | 0.384 |
- gemini-3.6-flash — n=2, Brier moyen 0.403
- gemini-3-flash-preview — n=4, Brier moyen 0.433
- gemini-3.5-flash — n=2, Brier moyen 0.41
Échantillon encore trop faible pour en tirer un pattern général (repère : n≈40) — ce tableau constate des faits, il ne conclut rien.