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Will the first published US JOLTS job openings level for September 2026 be below 7.0 million?

deadline 2026-11-04 confidence medium tier 1 evidence
Resolved
NO — 2026-11-04
FRED JTSJOL, 2026-09 = 7523 thousand, lu le 2026-11-04 (seuil < 7000 thousand) · source
62%Asturna estimate

Probability retained for the score: 62% (estimate of 3 Nov 2026, the last one before the day of the event, 4 Nov 2026). Revisions made on or after the event day do not count towards the score.

Resolution criterion

Yes if the total nonfarm job openings level (seasonally adjusted, in thousands) for September 2026, as first published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS news release (scheduled for 3 November 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET), is strictly below 7,000 thousand. A later revision does not count. A value of 7,000 thousand or more resolves No. If the release has not been published by 4 November 2026, the question is cancelled and not scored.

Verified starting state

BLS JOLTS release of 29 September 2026: job openings were 7,079 thousand in August 2026 (described as little changed), after 7,335 thousand in July, 7,182 thousand in June and 7,537 thousand in May (values as shown in that release). The same release states that the September 2026 report is scheduled for Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 7.0 million threshold is about 79 thousand below the last published level. No base rate has been computed for this question; the rate used will be a guessed one.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

The inherent monthly volatility of the JOLTS data, which often sees swings of 150k to 350k, makes a 79k margin highly unpredictable.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-11-04
Base rate55%
Best evidencetier 1 · 6 article(s) used
Independent runs62 · 62 (spread 0 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-11-03 09:01
Modelgemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consulted

US job openings drop in June, hiring increasestier 2 · Reuters · 2026-08-04Job openings in April surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two yearstier 2 · CNBC · 2026-06-02U.S. job openings fell in June 2026, layoffs unchanged: JOLTStier 3 · Quartz · 2026-08-04Labor Market Data Keeps Getting Revised Downtier 4 · SchiffGold.com · 2026-09-02Job openings jump, but labor market stuck in 'low-hire, low-fire pattern'tier 4 · WBFF · 2026-06-02U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) - official data series that settles this questiontier 1 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) · 2026-11-03

Probability history

2026-11-03 09:01 62% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The August 2026 level of 7,079k is only 79k (1.1%) above the 7.0 million threshold, leaving a very thin margin for any further decline [1].
  • What pushes it up. The average monthly change over the last four reported months is a decline of 152k, which would put the September figure well below 7.0 million if the trend continues [1].
  • What pushes it up. Reports from Reuters and Quartz indicate a general downward trend in job openings as the labor market cools [0, 2].
  • What pushes it up. Tier 4 analysis suggests that labor market data has frequently been revised downward, reflecting a weakening environment [3].
  • What pushes it down. The BLS described the August level as 'little changed,' which may signal a stabilization or plateauing of the recent decline [1].
  • What pushes it down. The JOLTS series is volatile, as evidenced by the 153k increase in July 2026 following a sharp drop in June [1].
  • What pushes it down. Earlier in the year (April 2026), job openings surged to 7.6 million, demonstrating that the labor market can still show unexpected strength [1].
  • What would move this number most. The inherent monthly volatility of the JOLTS data, which often sees swings of 150k to 350k, makes a 79k margin highly unpredictable.
2026-11-02 09:05 64% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. The August 2026 JOLTS level stood at 7,079 thousand, requiring only a 80 thousand decline to break below the 7,000 thousand threshold [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The trajectory across summer 2026 shows a net decline in openings from 7,537 thousand in May to 7,079 thousand in August [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. Monthly variation in seasonally adjusted JOLTS numbers frequently exceeds 100 to 200 thousand, making a sub-7.0 million printing readily achievable on noise alone [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. JOLTS numbers can rebound month-to-month, as seen in July 2026 when openings rose by 153 thousand over June [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. The August level of 7,079 thousand was characterized as 'little changed', indicating potential short-term stabilization around 7.1 million [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. The high monthly variance of JOLTS sampling noise, which can easily swing the figure by 150,000+ openings in either direction.
2026-11-01 09:06 65% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The August 2026 job openings level of 7.079 million is only 79,000 units above the 7.0 million threshold [1].
  • What pushes it up. The broader trend from May to August 2026 shows a significant decline from 7.537 million to 7.079 million [1].
  • What pushes it up. Recent monthly declines in June (-355k) and August (-256k) were much larger than the 79k buffer currently remaining [1].
  • What pushes it up. Market commentary describes a 'low-hire, low-fire' pattern, consistent with a slow erosion of total openings [4].
  • What pushes it down. The BLS described the August change as 'little changed,' which may indicate the downward momentum is stalling [1].
  • What pushes it down. The data showed an increase of 153,000 openings between June and July, proving the trend is not strictly linear [1].
  • What pushes it down. Round numbers like 7.0 million can sometimes act as a psychological support level in economic reporting [2].
  • What would move this number most. The inherent volatility of the JOLTS data, where a minor monthly fluctuation of less than 1.2% in either direction determines the outcome.
2026-10-31 09:09 69% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The August level of 7,079 thousand is only 80 thousand above the threshold, requiring only a modest 1.1% decline to resolve Yes [1].
  • What pushes it up. The overall trend from April (7.6 million) to August (7.08 million) shows a significant downward trajectory in job openings [1, 1].
  • What pushes it up. Two of the last three months (June and August) saw declines much larger than the 80 thousand needed to cross the threshold [1].
  • What pushes it up. Market analysts and wire services report a cooling labor market and a 'low-hire' pattern [0, 2, 6].
  • What pushes it down. Job openings showed a rebound in July (7,335 thousand) after a drop in June, indicating that the downward trend is not strictly linear [1].
  • What pushes it down. The BLS characterized the August level as 'little changed,' which could signal a stabilization or plateauing of job openings near the 7 million mark [1].
  • What would move this number most. Whether the 'little changed' status in August signals a stabilization of the labor market or if the broader cooling trend will push the September figure below the 7.0 million mark.
2026-10-30 12:00 64% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. August 2026 JOLTS reported job openings at 7,079 thousand, just 79 thousand above the 7.0 million threshold [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The broader trend from May (7,537 thousand) to August (7,079 thousand) indicates gradual cooling in labor demand [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. Reporting highlights a low-hire labor market environment with reduced hiring momentum [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. JOLTS monthly figures exhibit high variance and bounced up previously between June (7,182 thousand) and July (7,335 thousand) [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. August job openings were described by the BLS as 'little changed', suggesting stabilization rather than a rapid decline [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. The magnitude and direction of month-to-month noise in preliminary JOLTS sampling relative to the required 80 thousand drop.
2026-10-29 15:03 67% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. The August 2026 job openings level of 7,079k is only 79k above the 7.0 million threshold [7].
  • What pushes it up. The labor market has shown a clear downward trend from 7.6 million in April to 7.079 million in August [1, 7].
  • What pushes it up. Recent monthly declines have been significantly larger than the 80k drop required to cross the threshold, such as the 256k drop in August and the 355k drop in June [7].
  • What pushes it up. Reports suggest that labor market data has been frequently revised downward, indicating a weaker underlying trend than initial prints might suggest [3].
  • What pushes it down. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described the August change as 'little changed,' which could signal a stabilization of the downward trend [7].
  • What pushes it down. The labor market has shown volatility, including a 153k increase in job openings between June and July [7].
  • What pushes it down. The market has been characterized as being in a 'low-hire, low-fire pattern,' which may lead to levels plateauing rather than continuing to fall [6].
  • What would move this number most. Whether the 'little changed' status of the August data marks the beginning of a plateau or if the broader cooling trend observed since April will persist into September.
2026-10-28 20:01 62% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. August 2026 job openings fell by 256 thousand to 7,079 thousand, leaving the level just 79 thousand above the 7.0 million mark [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The broader multi-month trend shows a gradual decline in openings from 7,537 thousand in May 2026 [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. JOLTS data exhibits significant month-to-month volatility, as seen when openings rebounded by 153 thousand between June and July 2026 [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. The August change was officially described as 'little changed', suggesting potential stabilization above 7.0 million [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. Month-to-month sampling noise and revisions in BLS labor market surveys.
2026-10-26 15:05 65% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. The August 2026 job openings level of 7,079 thousand is only 79 thousand above the 7.0 million threshold, requiring less than a 1.2% decline to cross below it [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. The overall multi-month trend shows job openings declining from 7,537 thousand in May 2026 to 7,079 thousand in August 2026, indicating cooling labor demand [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Monthly JOLTS figures exhibit volatility and can rebound, as demonstrated by the increase from 7,182 thousand in June 2026 to 7,335 thousand in July 2026 [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described the August 2026 change as 'little changed', suggesting job openings level may be stabilizing near the 7.1 million mark rather than continuing a sharp drop [tier 1].
  • What would move this number most. The high month-to-month sampling noise and volatility in the JOLTS survey, where monthly swings regularly exceed 150,000 openings.

Post-mortem

Now that this question is resolved, each revision can be scored against the actual outcome.

2026-10-26 15:05gemini-3.6-flash65%0.423
2026-10-28 20:01gemini-3.6-flash62%0.384
2026-10-29 15:03gemini-3-flash-preview67%0.449
2026-10-30 12:00gemini-3.5-flash64%0.41
2026-10-31 09:09gemini-3-flash-preview69%0.476
2026-11-01 09:06gemini-3-flash-preview65%0.423
2026-11-02 09:05gemini-3.5-flash64%0.41
2026-11-03 09:01gemini-3-flash-preview62%0.384

Sample still too small to draw a general pattern from (rule of thumb: n≈40) — this table states facts, it does not conclude anything.