L'estimation rapide d'Eurostat de l'inflation annuelle IPCH de la zone euro pour novembre 2026, publiée au plus tard le 2 décembre 2026, sera-t-elle d'au moins 4,0 % ?
échéance 2026-12-02
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
69 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Oui si l'estimation rapide d'Eurostat de l'inflation annuelle IPCH de la zone euro (ensemble) pour novembre 2026, publiée au plus tard le 2 décembre 2026, est de 4,0 % ou plus. Seule l'estimation rapide compte ; les révisions ultérieures sont ignorées. Un chiffre inférieur, ou aucune estimation rapide publiée à cette date, vaut Non.
État de départ vérifié
La page des indicateurs de la zone euro d'Eurostat pour l'estimation rapide d'octobre 2026 (publiée le 4 novembre 2026) donne 4,0 % pour octobre, contre 3,8 % en septembre, et indique le 1er décembre 2026 comme prochaine publication. Le seuil est égal au niveau d'octobre. Aucune prévision ni probabilité de marché n'est utilisée comme preuve.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- The October 2026 flash estimate is already at 4.0%, meaning the rate only needs to remain stable for a 'Yes' resolution [1].
- There has been a sustained upward trend in euro area inflation since July 2026, rising from 2.8% to 4.0% in just three months [1, 2, 3].
Ce qui fait descendre
- The pace of inflation growth decelerated from a 0.6 percentage point increase in September to a 0.2 percentage point increase in October, which may indicate the trend is nearing a peak [1].
- Tier 4 reports indicate cooling consumer inflation in China, which could signal a broader easing of global inflationary pressures that might eventually impact the euro area [4].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The volatility of energy prices and the potential for a rapid cooling of the recent upward momentum as it approaches the 4.0% level.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-02 |
| Taux de base | 60% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 68 · 70 (écart 2 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-11-14 09:22 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-11-14 09:22 69% 9 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The October 2026 flash estimate is already at 4.0%, meaning the rate only needs to remain stable for a 'Yes' resolution [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. There has been a sustained upward trend in euro area inflation since July 2026, rising from 2.8% to 4.0% in just three months [1, 2, 3].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The pace of inflation growth decelerated from a 0.6 percentage point increase in September to a 0.2 percentage point increase in October, which may indicate the trend is nearing a peak [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Tier 4 reports indicate cooling consumer inflation in China, which could signal a broader easing of global inflationary pressures that might eventually impact the euro area [4].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The volatility of energy prices and the potential for a rapid cooling of the recent upward momentum as it approaches the 4.0% level.
2026-11-13 09:10 63% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The October 2026 flash estimate is already at 4.0%, which meets the resolution threshold [0, 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. There is a strong upward trend in annual inflation, which has risen from 2.8% in July to 4.0% in October [0, 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The pace of the inflation increase slowed from a 1.0 percentage point jump between July and September to a 0.2 percentage point increase in October, suggesting the trend may be losing momentum [0, 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. A tier 4 report indicates cooling consumer inflation in China, which could signal a broader easing of global price pressures, though this remains an uncorroborated weak signal [5].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the recent sharp inflationary momentum will persist or if the slowing rate of increase in October indicates that inflation has peaked at the 4.0% level.
2026-11-12 09:15 61% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. Euro area annual inflation has shown a consistent upward trend, rising from 2.8% in July to 4.0% in October 2026 [0, 2].
- Ce qui fait monter. The most recent month-on-month change showed a 0.2 percentage point increase from September (3.8%) to October (4.0%), suggesting continued upward momentum [0].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Chinese inflation is cooling in shops, which could signal a potential easing of global inflationary pressures on consumer goods [5].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Inflation at 4.0% is double the European Central Bank's target, which typically triggers restrictive monetary responses that aim to cap further increases.
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the volatility of energy and food prices, which are the most common drivers of fluctuations in the flash HICP estimate.
2026-11-11 09:25 62% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. Euro area annual inflation has been in a sustained upward trend, rising from 2.8% in July to 3.8% in September and reaching 4.0% in October 2026 [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Eurostat's publication calendar confirms the flash estimate release date is scheduled for 1 December 2026, comfortably on or before the 2 December 2026 deadline [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. A downward movement of just 0.1 percentage point (to 3.9%) due to rounding or favorable base effects would cause the market to resolve No.
- Ce qui fait descendre. Upstream or international consumer price cooling, such as in Chinese retail channels [tier 4], could introduce slight disinflationary pressure.
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether November 2025 base effects and short-term energy price movements cause a minor downward tick below the 4.0% boundary.
2026-11-10 09:21 52% 5 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. Euro area annual inflation demonstrated upward momentum in October 2026, rising to 4.0% from 3.8% in September [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Annual inflation at 4.0% is well above the ECB's target, leaving room for a modest downward correction or base effect reduction back below 4.0% [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Energy price shifts and base effects between November 2025 and November 2026 that could pull the annual rate slightly below 4.0%.
2026-11-09 09:15 52% 4 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. October 2026 inflation was measured at 4.0%, showing upward momentum after rising from 3.8% in September [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Annual inflation at 4.0% is substantially above target, and volatile components like energy or favorable base effects could cause a slight pull-back to 3.9% or below in November [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Energy price shifts and seasonal services pricing changes between October and November 2026.
2026-11-08 15:00 61% 2 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. Inflation momentum is currently positive, having risen from 3.8% in September to 4.0% in October [1]
- Ce qui fait monter. The November estimate is only one month removed from the current 4.0% reading, providing little time for a significant structural shift [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. The 4.0% level is double the European Central Bank's target, which typically triggers contractionary pressures or policy responses [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Mean reversion tendencies suggest that inflation spikes above historical norms are subject to eventual cooling [1]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Energy price volatility and the specific base effects from the month-on-month change in November 2025.