Will Eurostat's flash estimate of euro area annual HICP inflation for November 2026, published on or before 2 December 2026, be at least 4.0%?
deadline 2026-12-02
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
69%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Eurostat's flash estimate of euro area annual HICP inflation (all items) for November 2026, published on or before 2 December 2026, is 4.0% or higher. Only the flash estimate counts; later revisions are ignored. A lower figure, or no flash estimate published by that date, resolves No.
Verified starting state
The Eurostat euro indicators page for the October 2026 flash estimate (published 4 November 2026) gives 4.0% for October, up from 3.8% in September, and names 1 December 2026 as the next release. The threshold equals the October level. No forecast or market probability is used as evidence.
What pushes it up
- The October 2026 flash estimate is already at 4.0%, meaning the rate only needs to remain stable for a 'Yes' resolution [1].
- There has been a sustained upward trend in euro area inflation since July 2026, rising from 2.8% to 4.0% in just three months [1, 2, 3].
What pushes it down
- The pace of inflation growth decelerated from a 0.6 percentage point increase in September to a 0.2 percentage point increase in October, which may indicate the trend is nearing a peak [1].
- Tier 4 reports indicate cooling consumer inflation in China, which could signal a broader easing of global inflationary pressures that might eventually impact the euro area [4].
What would move this number most
The volatility of energy prices and the potential for a rapid cooling of the recent upward momentum as it approaches the 4.0% level.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-02 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 6 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 68 · 70 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-14 09:22 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-14 09:22 69% 9 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The October 2026 flash estimate is already at 4.0%, meaning the rate only needs to remain stable for a 'Yes' resolution [1].
- What pushes it up. There has been a sustained upward trend in euro area inflation since July 2026, rising from 2.8% to 4.0% in just three months [1, 2, 3].
- What pushes it down. The pace of inflation growth decelerated from a 0.6 percentage point increase in September to a 0.2 percentage point increase in October, which may indicate the trend is nearing a peak [1].
- What pushes it down. Tier 4 reports indicate cooling consumer inflation in China, which could signal a broader easing of global inflationary pressures that might eventually impact the euro area [4].
- What would move this number most. The volatility of energy prices and the potential for a rapid cooling of the recent upward momentum as it approaches the 4.0% level.
2026-11-13 09:10 63% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The October 2026 flash estimate is already at 4.0%, which meets the resolution threshold [0, 1].
- What pushes it up. There is a strong upward trend in annual inflation, which has risen from 2.8% in July to 4.0% in October [0, 2].
- What pushes it down. The pace of the inflation increase slowed from a 1.0 percentage point jump between July and September to a 0.2 percentage point increase in October, suggesting the trend may be losing momentum [0, 2].
- What pushes it down. A tier 4 report indicates cooling consumer inflation in China, which could signal a broader easing of global price pressures, though this remains an uncorroborated weak signal [5].
- What would move this number most. Whether the recent sharp inflationary momentum will persist or if the slowing rate of increase in October indicates that inflation has peaked at the 4.0% level.
2026-11-12 09:15 61% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Euro area annual inflation has shown a consistent upward trend, rising from 2.8% in July to 4.0% in October 2026 [0, 2].
- What pushes it up. The most recent month-on-month change showed a 0.2 percentage point increase from September (3.8%) to October (4.0%), suggesting continued upward momentum [0].
- What pushes it down. Chinese inflation is cooling in shops, which could signal a potential easing of global inflationary pressures on consumer goods [5].
- What pushes it down. Inflation at 4.0% is double the European Central Bank's target, which typically triggers restrictive monetary responses that aim to cap further increases.
- What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the volatility of energy and food prices, which are the most common drivers of fluctuations in the flash HICP estimate.
2026-11-11 09:25 62% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. Euro area annual inflation has been in a sustained upward trend, rising from 2.8% in July to 3.8% in September and reaching 4.0% in October 2026 [tier 1].
- What pushes it up. Eurostat's publication calendar confirms the flash estimate release date is scheduled for 1 December 2026, comfortably on or before the 2 December 2026 deadline [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. A downward movement of just 0.1 percentage point (to 3.9%) due to rounding or favorable base effects would cause the market to resolve No.
- What pushes it down. Upstream or international consumer price cooling, such as in Chinese retail channels [tier 4], could introduce slight disinflationary pressure.
- What would move this number most. Whether November 2025 base effects and short-term energy price movements cause a minor downward tick below the 4.0% boundary.
2026-11-10 09:21 52% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. Euro area annual inflation demonstrated upward momentum in October 2026, rising to 4.0% from 3.8% in September [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Annual inflation at 4.0% is well above the ECB's target, leaving room for a modest downward correction or base effect reduction back below 4.0% [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Energy price shifts and base effects between November 2025 and November 2026 that could pull the annual rate slightly below 4.0%.
2026-11-09 09:15 52% 4 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. October 2026 inflation was measured at 4.0%, showing upward momentum after rising from 3.8% in September [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Annual inflation at 4.0% is substantially above target, and volatile components like energy or favorable base effects could cause a slight pull-back to 3.9% or below in November [tier 1].
- What would move this number most. Energy price shifts and seasonal services pricing changes between October and November 2026.
2026-11-08 15:00 61% 2 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Inflation momentum is currently positive, having risen from 3.8% in September to 4.0% in October [1]
- What pushes it up. The November estimate is only one month removed from the current 4.0% reading, providing little time for a significant structural shift [1]
- What pushes it down. The 4.0% level is double the European Central Bank's target, which typically triggers contractionary pressures or policy responses [1]
- What pushes it down. Mean reversion tendencies suggest that inflation spikes above historical norms are subject to eventual cooling [1]
- What would move this number most. Energy price volatility and the specific base effects from the month-on-month change in November 2025.