Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of December 2026 be at least 5.15 %?

échéance 2027-01-05 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 1

44 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the last value published for December 2026 in the FRED series DGS10 (market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, daily, not seasonally adjusted (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), republished by FRED), that is the close of the last business day of the month, is at least 5.15 %. The value is read on or after 2027-01-05 and the value read at that moment is final. If the data for that month are not yet available on 2027-01-05, the check is repeated until 2027-01-15, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 4.98 % (2026-10-29). Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 30% of past 43-business-day changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 5.15 %, reference 4.98 % (2026-10-29)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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Ce qui fait monter

The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.0%, narrowing the gap to the 5.15% threshold [0, 1].
Hotter-than-expected CPI data and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller have increased market expectations for further rate hikes [1, 12].
Investors are shifting focus back to persistent inflation data, which has recently surprised to the upside [2, 4].

Ce qui fait descendre

Democratic victories in the House and Senate midterms initially led to a slide in Treasury yields [7, 8].
A significant drop in oil prices may help dampen inflationary pressures and lower yield expectations [8, 10].
The Federal Reserve and ECB recently held interest rates steady, suggesting a potential pause in the tightening cycle [11].

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

The primary uncertainty is the upcoming inflation data (CPI and PPI) for November and December, which will dictate whether the Fed resumes hiking or remains on hold.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance	2027-01-05
Taux de base	30%
Meilleure preuve	niveau 1 · 9 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations	40 · 48 (écart 8 pts)
Confiance	moyenne
Plafond de preuve	non déclenché
Révisée le	2026-11-11 09:32
Modèle	gemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consultées

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Tops 5% on Expectations of Higher Interest Ratesniveau 2 · WSJ · 2026-11-10 10-year Treasury yield races back to 5% as inflation data, Waller comments drive rate hike expectationsniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-10 U.S., Eurozone Bond Yields Turn Higher as Investors Shift Focus Back to Dataniveau 2 · WSJ · 2026-11-09 Treasury yields fall after Democrats win House and Senate majoritiesniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-04 10-year Treasury yield slides as traders mull over Democrats' midterm victories, oil prices dropniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-04 Treasury yields are mixed as oil prices tumble ahead of the midtermsniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-11-02 U.S. Treasury, European Bond Yields Fall After Fed, ECB Holdniveau 2 · WSJ · 2026-10-31 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% after hotter CPI data increases rate hike oddsniveau 4 · TradingView · 2026-11-10

Historique de la probabilité

2026-11-11 09:32 44% 42 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.0%, narrowing the gap to the 5.15% threshold [0, 1].
Ce qui fait monter. Hotter-than-expected CPI data and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller have increased market expectations for further rate hikes [1, 12].
Ce qui fait monter. Investors are shifting focus back to persistent inflation data, which has recently surprised to the upside [2, 4].
Ce qui fait descendre. Democratic victories in the House and Senate midterms initially led to a slide in Treasury yields [7, 8].
Ce qui fait descendre. A significant drop in oil prices may help dampen inflationary pressures and lower yield expectations [8, 10].
Ce qui fait descendre. The Federal Reserve and ECB recently held interest rates steady, suggesting a potential pause in the tightening cycle [11].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the upcoming inflation data (CPI and PPI) for November and December, which will dictate whether the Fed resumes hiking or remains on hold.

2026-11-02 12:02 24% 12 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. 10‑year Treasury yield creeps higher even as Fed keeps rates the same [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. 10‑year Treasury yield ticks higher despite weaker‑than‑expected jobs report [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. Treasury yields fall after Fed, ECB hold [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Global bond yields fall sharply in October amid flight to safety [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. 10‑year Treasury yield moves lower after weak housing data [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Treasury yields fall from multiyear highs [tier 2]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Future Fed policy and inflation trajectory could shift yields sharply