Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of December 2026 be at least 5.15 %?
deadline 2027-01-05
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
44%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the last value published for December 2026 in the FRED series DGS10 (market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, daily, not seasonally adjusted (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), republished by FRED), that is the close of the last business day of the month, is at least 5.15 %. The value is read on or after 2027-01-05 and the value read at that moment is final. If the data for that month are not yet available on 2027-01-05, the check is repeated until 2027-01-15, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 4.98 % (2026-10-29). Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 30% of past 43-business-day changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 5.15 %, reference 4.98 % (2026-10-29)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.0%, narrowing the gap to the 5.15% threshold [0, 1].
- Hotter-than-expected CPI data and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller have increased market expectations for further rate hikes [1, 12].
- Investors are shifting focus back to persistent inflation data, which has recently surprised to the upside [2, 4].
What pushes it down
- Democratic victories in the House and Senate midterms initially led to a slide in Treasury yields [7, 8].
- A significant drop in oil prices may help dampen inflationary pressures and lower yield expectations [8, 10].
- The Federal Reserve and ECB recently held interest rates steady, suggesting a potential pause in the tightening cycle [11].
What would move this number most
The primary uncertainty is the upcoming inflation data (CPI and PPI) for November and December, which will dictate whether the Fed resumes hiking or remains on hold.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-01-05 |
| Base rate | 30% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 9 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 40 · 48 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-11 09:32 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-11-11 09:32 44% 42 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.0%, narrowing the gap to the 5.15% threshold [0, 1].
- What pushes it up. Hotter-than-expected CPI data and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller have increased market expectations for further rate hikes [1, 12].
- What pushes it up. Investors are shifting focus back to persistent inflation data, which has recently surprised to the upside [2, 4].
- What pushes it down. Democratic victories in the House and Senate midterms initially led to a slide in Treasury yields [7, 8].
- What pushes it down. A significant drop in oil prices may help dampen inflationary pressures and lower yield expectations [8, 10].
- What pushes it down. The Federal Reserve and ECB recently held interest rates steady, suggesting a potential pause in the tightening cycle [11].
- What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the upcoming inflation data (CPI and PPI) for November and December, which will dictate whether the Fed resumes hiking or remains on hold.
2026-11-02 12:02 24% 12 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. 10‑year Treasury yield creeps higher even as Fed keeps rates the same [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. 10‑year Treasury yield ticks higher despite weaker‑than‑expected jobs report [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. U.S. Treasury yields fall after Fed, ECB hold [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Global bond yields fall sharply in October amid flight to safety [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. 10‑year Treasury yield moves lower after weak housing data [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Treasury yields fall from multiyear highs [tier 2]
- What would move this number most. Future Fed policy and inflation trajectory could shift yields sharply