Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for November 2026 be at least 3.7 %?
échéance 2026-12-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
50 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, BLS series CUUR0000SA0 republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a 12-month percentage change of the index (index of November 2026 divided by the index of November 2025, minus 1), computed from the published index levels and rounded to one decimal, of at least 3.7 %. The value read at that moment is final (the non-seasonally-adjusted index is not revised). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 3.7 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 53% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 3.7 %, reference 3.7 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- Headline CPI reached 3.7% in September 2026, supported by surging gas prices and sticky underlying components [tier 2, tier 4].
- Energy and commodity price pressure can exhibit short-term momentum over a two-month horizon [tier 4].
Ce qui fait descendre
- Energy price spikes are historically volatile and prone to rapid reversal heading into late autumn [tier 2].
- Ongoing monetary policy constraints from the Federal Reserve continue to apply downward pressure on broader demand and inflation [tier 2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether crude oil and gasoline price volatility persists through October and November or rapidly moderates.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-20 |
| Taux de base | 53% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 3 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 50 · 50 (écart 0 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-17 09:05 |
| Modèle | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-17 09:05 50% 5 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. Headline CPI reached 3.7% in September 2026, supported by surging gas prices and sticky underlying components [tier 2, tier 4].
- Ce qui fait monter. Energy and commodity price pressure can exhibit short-term momentum over a two-month horizon [tier 4].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Energy price spikes are historically volatile and prone to rapid reversal heading into late autumn [tier 2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Ongoing monetary policy constraints from the Federal Reserve continue to apply downward pressure on broader demand and inflation [tier 2].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether crude oil and gasoline price volatility persists through October and November or rapidly moderates.
2026-10-16 15:39 58% 5 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- Ce qui fait monter. Recent CPI report shows a 3.7% YoY increase in September 2026, indicating inflation is at the target level and may persist (tier 2)
- Ce qui fait descendre. No forward guidance that inflation will stay at 3.7% and past volatility suggests it could ease before November (tier 2)
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The actual November 2026 CPI reading when released will determine the outcome.