Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for November 2026 be at least 3.7 %?
deadline 2026-12-20
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
50%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, BLS series CUUR0000SA0 republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a 12-month percentage change of the index (index of November 2026 divided by the index of November 2025, minus 1), computed from the published index levels and rounded to one decimal, of at least 3.7 %. The value read at that moment is final (the non-seasonally-adjusted index is not revised). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 3.7 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 53% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 3.7 %, reference 3.7 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- Headline CPI reached 3.7% in September 2026, supported by surging gas prices and sticky underlying components [tier 2, tier 4].
- Energy and commodity price pressure can exhibit short-term momentum over a two-month horizon [tier 4].
What pushes it down
- Energy price spikes are historically volatile and prone to rapid reversal heading into late autumn [tier 2].
- Ongoing monetary policy constraints from the Federal Reserve continue to apply downward pressure on broader demand and inflation [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Whether crude oil and gasoline price volatility persists through October and November or rapidly moderates.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-20 |
| Base rate | 53% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 50 · 50 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-17 09:05 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-17 09:05 50% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. Headline CPI reached 3.7% in September 2026, supported by surging gas prices and sticky underlying components [tier 2, tier 4].
- What pushes it up. Energy and commodity price pressure can exhibit short-term momentum over a two-month horizon [tier 4].
- What pushes it down. Energy price spikes are historically volatile and prone to rapid reversal heading into late autumn [tier 2].
- What pushes it down. Ongoing monetary policy constraints from the Federal Reserve continue to apply downward pressure on broader demand and inflation [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether crude oil and gasoline price volatility persists through October and November or rapidly moderates.
2026-10-16 15:39 58% 5 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Recent CPI report shows a 3.7% YoY increase in September 2026, indicating inflation is at the target level and may persist (tier 2)
- What pushes it down. No forward guidance that inflation will stay at 3.7% and past volatility suggests it could ease before November (tier 2)
- What would move this number most. The actual November 2026 CPI reading when released will determine the outcome.