Finance · English

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday November 7, 2026 be at least 205,000?

échéance 2026-11-13 confiance élevée preuve niveau 2
Résolution en cours de vérification
FRED ICSA, week ending 2026-11-07 = 200,000 claims, read on 2026-11-13 (threshold 205,000) · source
10 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-11-13 from the FRED series ICSA (initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted, weekly, week ending Saturday (U.S. Employment and Training Administration), republished by FRED) for the observation dated 2026-11-07 is at least 205,000. This is the advance figure published on the Thursday before; the value read at that moment is final (later weekly revisions do not change the outcome). If the 2026-11-07 observation is not yet available on 2026-11-13, the check is repeated until 2026-11-20, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 194,000 (week ending 2026-10-24). Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 12% of past two-week percentage changes in this weekly series since 2010 (excluding March 2020 - June 2021), applied to the reference level, reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 205,000, reference 194,000 (week ending 2026-10-24)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Whether an unpredicted surge in seasonal layoffs or volatility occurs in the advance release for the week ending November 7.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2026-11-13
Taux de base12%
Meilleure preuveniveau 2 · 7 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations10 · 10 (écart 0 pts)
Confianceélevée
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-11-12 09:04
Modèlegemini-3.6-flash

Sources consultées

Jobless claims near the lowest since the 1960s as low-fire trend continuesniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-22U.S. Jobless Claims Return to Downward Trendniveau 2 · WSJ · 2026-10-22US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Three-Month Low of 194,000niveau 2 · Bloomberg.com · 2026-10-22US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows, underscore labor market stabilityniveau 2 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-22US weekly jobless claims at 57-year lows amid low layoffsniveau 4 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-11-05Last week saw US Initial Jobless Claims fall to 189Kniveau 4 · www.tmgm.com · 2026-11-05US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 189K last weekniveau 4 · FXStreet · 2026-11-05

Historique de la probabilité

2026-11-12 09:04 10% 31 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims data is subject to volatility and occasional sharp uptick spikes caused by seasonal adjustments, weather, or localized events [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Historical base rate demonstrates a 12% probability of a two-week shift of this magnitude under typical labor market conditions [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports indicate initial claims dropped further to 189,000 in early November, hovering near historic 57-year lows [tier 4, corroborated by tier 2 articles 0, 1, 2, 3].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple wire service reports highlight persistent low layoff trends and broad U.S. labor market stability heading into November 2026 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether an unpredicted surge in seasonal layoffs or volatility occurs in the advance release for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-11 09:03 9% 30 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims are subject to volatility and can rise marginally even in a stable market [tier 2: 4].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Seasonal adjustment factors can occasionally produce unexpected spikes in the advance figures.
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Jobless claims are currently hovering near 57-year lows, indicating extreme labor market tightness [tier 2: 0, 3, 5].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports explicitly state that claims have returned to a downward trend [tier 2: 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The labor market is consistently described by major news outlets as resilient and stable [tier 2: 9, 10].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the inherent weekly volatility of the seasonally adjusted data and the potential for a sudden, unannounced shift in layoff activity.
2026-11-10 09:07 10% 30 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims series is subject to routine short-term volatility and seasonal adjustment noise that could temporarily push claims up by 15,000 or more [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial claims fell further to 189,000 for the week ending October 31, requiring a steep 16,000 single-week increase to reach 205,000 [tier 4 articles 13, 14].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Broader labor market indicators show persistent stability and historic multi-decade low layoff levels throughout autumn 2026 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether weekly seasonal adjustments or sudden late-year layoffs generate a short-term spike of over 16,000 claims for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-09 09:04 9% 30 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Historical weekly volatility in jobless claims data can occasionally produce unexpected spikes even in a strong labor market [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent data for the week ending October 31 shows claims fell to 189,000, which is further from the 205,000 threshold than the previous reference point [tier 4: 13, 14, 15].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple reports characterize the current labor market as having a 'low-fire trend' and being at '57-year lows' for claims [tier 2: 0, 3, 5].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The labor market is consistently described as resilient and stable with low layoffs [tier 2: 1, 2, 10].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the inherent week-to-week volatility of the seasonally adjusted data, which can be affected by administrative delays or localized economic shocks.
2026-11-08 09:08 11% 30 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims series experience routine noise and seasonal adjustments that can periodically produce single-week bumps of 15,000 or more.
  • Ce qui fait monter. The 2-week historical base rate for an increase of this magnitude from the reference period is 12%.
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent tier 2 reports show initial jobless claims near 57-year lows around 194,000 [tier 2], with tier 4 reports indicating a further drop to 189,000 for the week ending October 31 [tier 4], corroborated by the ongoing trend of low layoffs described in tier 2 sources [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. To reach 205,000 from the latest 189,000 level would require a one-week increase of 16,000, which is unlikely given persistent labor market stability [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether seasonal volatility or holiday-related filing distortions cause a temporary spike in claims for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-07 09:10 9% 30 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims data is subject to inherent volatility and potential seasonal adjustment anomalies [Base Rate].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Economic conditions can shift rapidly, though no immediate triggers are cited in current reports [Base Rate].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent data shows claims at 57-year lows, indicating extreme labor market stability [0, 3, 11].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The most recent Tier 2 reports confirm a downward trend, with claims reaching 194,000 as of late October [1, 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple sources report that layoffs remain very low across the economy [4, 6, 11].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Tier 4 reports suggest a further drop to 189,000 for the week ending October 31, which would increase the distance to the 205,000 threshold [13, 14, 15].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is whether a sudden, unpredicted spike in layoffs or a significant revision to seasonal adjustment factors occurs for the specific week ending November 7.
2026-11-06 09:04 13% 30 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims data is subject to regular volatility and seasonal adjustment quirks, which can cause sudden short-term spikes of 10,000 to 20,000 even during periods of broad labor market strength [2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. The historical base rate shows a 12% probability of a two-week increase reaching this threshold from the reference level.
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial jobless claims remain extremely low at near 57-year lows (189,000 to 194,000 range), reflecting persistent low layoff rates across the U.S. economy [0, 1, 2, 3].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Tier 4 reports covering the most recent week ending October 31 indicate claims fell further to 189,000, requiring an even larger single-week jump of 16,000 to reach 205,000 [13, 14].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether seasonal adjustment anomalies or unpredicted corporate layoff announcements cause a sudden, sharp single-week spike above 205,000.
2026-11-04 20:02 14% 23 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly volatility inherent in the seasonally adjusted jobless claims series [16]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Potential for mean reversion after reaching 57-year lows [12]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Labor market shows extreme stability with claims at or near 57-year lows [0, 3, 5, 13]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent trend has been downward, with the latest figure at 194,000 [1, 2, 14]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Reports consistently highlight low layoff activity and a 'low-fire' trend [0, 4, 6]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Unexpected large-scale layoffs or significant data volatility in the upcoming release for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-03 09:14 15% 16 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims data is subject to regular short-term volatility and seasonal adjustment noise, making temporary spikes of 11,000 or more fairly common over two-week windows [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. initial jobless claims recently fell to 194,000, continuing a multi-month trend near 57-year lows supported by persistent low layoff rates [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Unanticipated spikes in seasonal lay-offs or localized disruption ahead of the holiday season that could cause a short-term rise above 205,000.
2026-11-01 11:03 21% 10 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. At extremely low levels like 194,000, natural weekly volatility, holiday effects, or minor seasonal adjustment noise can easily push claims up by 11,000 or more over a two-week period [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Mean reversion after hitting a near 57-year low makes a short-term upward tick statistically common.
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The underlying labor market remains extremely tight with layoff activity staying remarkably subdued [tier 2: 0, 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple consecutive weeks of claims remaining near multi-decade lows demonstrate strong structural momentum preventing large surges in filings [tier 2: 1, 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether seasonal adjustment factors or unexpected corporate layoff announcements introduce a temporary bump above 205,000.