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Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday November 7, 2026 be at least 205,000?

deadline 2026-11-13 confidence high tier 2 evidence
Resolution being verified
FRED ICSA, week ending 2026-11-07 = 200,000 claims, read on 2026-11-13 (threshold 205,000) · source
10%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-11-13 from the FRED series ICSA (initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted, weekly, week ending Saturday (U.S. Employment and Training Administration), republished by FRED) for the observation dated 2026-11-07 is at least 205,000. This is the advance figure published on the Thursday before; the value read at that moment is final (later weekly revisions do not change the outcome). If the 2026-11-07 observation is not yet available on 2026-11-13, the check is repeated until 2026-11-20, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 194,000 (week ending 2026-10-24). Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Verified starting state

Computed base rate: 12% of past two-week percentage changes in this weekly series since 2010 (excluding March 2020 - June 2021), applied to the reference level, reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 205,000, reference 194,000 (week ending 2026-10-24)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether an unpredicted surge in seasonal layoffs or volatility occurs in the advance release for the week ending November 7.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-11-13
Base rate12%
Best evidencetier 2 · 7 article(s) used
Independent runs10 · 10 (spread 0 pts)
Confidencehigh
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-11-12 09:04
Modelgemini-3.6-flash

Sources consulted

Jobless claims near the lowest since the 1960s as low-fire trend continuestier 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-22U.S. Jobless Claims Return to Downward Trendtier 2 · WSJ · 2026-10-22US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Three-Month Low of 194,000tier 2 · Bloomberg.com · 2026-10-22US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows, underscore labor market stabilitytier 2 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-22US weekly jobless claims at 57-year lows amid low layoffstier 4 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-11-05Last week saw US Initial Jobless Claims fall to 189Ktier 4 · www.tmgm.com · 2026-11-05US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 189K last weektier 4 · FXStreet · 2026-11-05

Probability history

2026-11-12 09:04 10% 31 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Weekly initial claims data is subject to volatility and occasional sharp uptick spikes caused by seasonal adjustments, weather, or localized events [tier 2].
  • What pushes it up. Historical base rate demonstrates a 12% probability of a two-week shift of this magnitude under typical labor market conditions [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Recent reports indicate initial claims dropped further to 189,000 in early November, hovering near historic 57-year lows [tier 4, corroborated by tier 2 articles 0, 1, 2, 3].
  • What pushes it down. Multiple wire service reports highlight persistent low layoff trends and broad U.S. labor market stability heading into November 2026 [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether an unpredicted surge in seasonal layoffs or volatility occurs in the advance release for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-11 09:03 9% 30 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Weekly jobless claims are subject to volatility and can rise marginally even in a stable market [tier 2: 4].
  • What pushes it up. Seasonal adjustment factors can occasionally produce unexpected spikes in the advance figures.
  • What pushes it down. Jobless claims are currently hovering near 57-year lows, indicating extreme labor market tightness [tier 2: 0, 3, 5].
  • What pushes it down. Recent reports explicitly state that claims have returned to a downward trend [tier 2: 1].
  • What pushes it down. The labor market is consistently described by major news outlets as resilient and stable [tier 2: 9, 10].
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the inherent weekly volatility of the seasonally adjusted data and the potential for a sudden, unannounced shift in layoff activity.
2026-11-10 09:07 10% 30 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Weekly jobless claims series is subject to routine short-term volatility and seasonal adjustment noise that could temporarily push claims up by 15,000 or more [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. Initial claims fell further to 189,000 for the week ending October 31, requiring a steep 16,000 single-week increase to reach 205,000 [tier 4 articles 13, 14].
  • What pushes it down. Broader labor market indicators show persistent stability and historic multi-decade low layoff levels throughout autumn 2026 [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether weekly seasonal adjustments or sudden late-year layoffs generate a short-term spike of over 16,000 claims for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-09 09:04 9% 30 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Historical weekly volatility in jobless claims data can occasionally produce unexpected spikes even in a strong labor market [tier 1].
  • What pushes it down. Recent data for the week ending October 31 shows claims fell to 189,000, which is further from the 205,000 threshold than the previous reference point [tier 4: 13, 14, 15].
  • What pushes it down. Multiple reports characterize the current labor market as having a 'low-fire trend' and being at '57-year lows' for claims [tier 2: 0, 3, 5].
  • What pushes it down. The labor market is consistently described as resilient and stable with low layoffs [tier 2: 1, 2, 10].
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is the inherent week-to-week volatility of the seasonally adjusted data, which can be affected by administrative delays or localized economic shocks.
2026-11-08 09:08 11% 30 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Weekly jobless claims series experience routine noise and seasonal adjustments that can periodically produce single-week bumps of 15,000 or more.
  • What pushes it up. The 2-week historical base rate for an increase of this magnitude from the reference period is 12%.
  • What pushes it down. Recent tier 2 reports show initial jobless claims near 57-year lows around 194,000 [tier 2], with tier 4 reports indicating a further drop to 189,000 for the week ending October 31 [tier 4], corroborated by the ongoing trend of low layoffs described in tier 2 sources [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. To reach 205,000 from the latest 189,000 level would require a one-week increase of 16,000, which is unlikely given persistent labor market stability [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether seasonal volatility or holiday-related filing distortions cause a temporary spike in claims for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-07 09:10 9% 30 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Weekly jobless claims data is subject to inherent volatility and potential seasonal adjustment anomalies [Base Rate].
  • What pushes it up. Economic conditions can shift rapidly, though no immediate triggers are cited in current reports [Base Rate].
  • What pushes it down. Recent data shows claims at 57-year lows, indicating extreme labor market stability [0, 3, 11].
  • What pushes it down. The most recent Tier 2 reports confirm a downward trend, with claims reaching 194,000 as of late October [1, 2].
  • What pushes it down. Multiple sources report that layoffs remain very low across the economy [4, 6, 11].
  • What pushes it down. Tier 4 reports suggest a further drop to 189,000 for the week ending October 31, which would increase the distance to the 205,000 threshold [13, 14, 15].
  • What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is whether a sudden, unpredicted spike in layoffs or a significant revision to seasonal adjustment factors occurs for the specific week ending November 7.
2026-11-06 09:04 13% 30 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. Weekly initial claims data is subject to regular volatility and seasonal adjustment quirks, which can cause sudden short-term spikes of 10,000 to 20,000 even during periods of broad labor market strength [2].
  • What pushes it up. The historical base rate shows a 12% probability of a two-week increase reaching this threshold from the reference level.
  • What pushes it down. Initial jobless claims remain extremely low at near 57-year lows (189,000 to 194,000 range), reflecting persistent low layoff rates across the U.S. economy [0, 1, 2, 3].
  • What pushes it down. Tier 4 reports covering the most recent week ending October 31 indicate claims fell further to 189,000, requiring an even larger single-week jump of 16,000 to reach 205,000 [13, 14].
  • What would move this number most. Whether seasonal adjustment anomalies or unpredicted corporate layoff announcements cause a sudden, sharp single-week spike above 205,000.
2026-11-04 20:02 14% 23 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • What pushes it up. Weekly volatility inherent in the seasonally adjusted jobless claims series [16]
  • What pushes it up. Potential for mean reversion after reaching 57-year lows [12]
  • What pushes it down. Labor market shows extreme stability with claims at or near 57-year lows [0, 3, 5, 13]
  • What pushes it down. Recent trend has been downward, with the latest figure at 194,000 [1, 2, 14]
  • What pushes it down. Reports consistently highlight low layoff activity and a 'low-fire' trend [0, 4, 6]
  • What would move this number most. Unexpected large-scale layoffs or significant data volatility in the upcoming release for the week ending November 7.
2026-11-03 09:14 15% 16 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
  • What pushes it up. Weekly initial claims data is subject to regular short-term volatility and seasonal adjustment noise, making temporary spikes of 11,000 or more fairly common over two-week windows [tier 2].
  • What pushes it down. U.S. initial jobless claims recently fell to 194,000, continuing a multi-month trend near 57-year lows supported by persistent low layoff rates [tier 2].
  • What would move this number most. Unanticipated spikes in seasonal lay-offs or localized disruption ahead of the holiday season that could cause a short-term rise above 205,000.
2026-11-01 11:03 21% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
  • What pushes it up. At extremely low levels like 194,000, natural weekly volatility, holiday effects, or minor seasonal adjustment noise can easily push claims up by 11,000 or more over a two-week period [tier 1].
  • What pushes it up. Mean reversion after hitting a near 57-year low makes a short-term upward tick statistically common.
  • What pushes it down. The underlying labor market remains extremely tight with layoff activity staying remarkably subdued [tier 2: 0, 1].
  • What pushes it down. Multiple consecutive weeks of claims remaining near multi-decade lows demonstrate strong structural momentum preventing large surges in filings [tier 2: 1, 2].
  • What would move this number most. Whether seasonal adjustment factors or unexpected corporate layoff announcements introduce a temporary bump above 205,000.