SpaceX réalisera-t-il un transfert d'ergols en orbite entre deux Starship avant le 31 mars 2027 ?

• Ce qui fait monter. NASA and SpaceX have scheduled the orbital propellant transfer demonstration for late 2026, well within the deadline window of March 31, 2027 [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait monter. Starship V3 successfully debuted before May 2026, establishing the hardware platform required for the demonstration flight tests [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The demonstration requires launching two Starships (depot and tanker) within 3 to 4 weeks of each other, a launch cadence SpaceX has not yet sustained with Starship [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The milestone has already experienced schedule slippage from 2025 to late 2026, leaving only a 5.5-month buffer before the March 31, 2027 cutoff [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. All recent press coverage consists of tier 4 articles [0, 1, 2, 3, 4], which provide weak signals and cannot independently justify an increased probability.
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether SpaceX can achieve FAA authorization and operational readiness for two Starship launches separated by less than four weeks before Q1 2027.

• Ce qui fait monter. SpaceX and NASA officially scheduled the two-launch ship-to-ship propellant transfer demonstration for late 2026 as a critical milestone for Artemis III [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait monter. Starship V3 debuted prior to May 2026, advancing vehicle architecture toward operational configurations [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The demonstration requires launching two Starships 3 to 4 weeks apart, a launch cadence SpaceX has never previously sustained with Starship [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The demonstration milestone has already slipped repeatedly, shifting from 2025 into late 2026 [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. Reports from late September 2026 indicate the orbital flight test did not go completely to plan [tier 4], which typically causes investigation and engineering delays in a remaining window of only 5.5 months.
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether SpaceX can secure regulatory clearance and achieve the required 3-to-4-week turnaround between Starship launches from Starbase or Cape Canaveral before the end of Q1 2027.

• Ce qui fait monter. NASA and SpaceX targeted the propellant transfer demonstration for late 2026, keeping the event within or very close to the March 2027 window [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait monter. Starship V3 has already debuted and reached orbit by September 2026, progressing toward operational flights [tier 1, tier 4].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The demonstration requires launching two Starships three to four weeks apart, a launch cadence SpaceX has never yet sustained for Starship [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. Starship flight tests continue to encounter anomalies ('didn't go completely to plan'), making a 5.5-month turnaround for two consecutive flawless flights highly vulnerable to delays [tier 4].
• Ce qui fait descendre. All recent reporting is tier 4 and uncorroborated by tier 1 or 2 press regarding a firm date, reflecting substantial uncertainty.
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether SpaceX can execute two consecutive Starship launches within a single month without regulatory or technical delays before April 2027.

• Ce qui fait monter. The demonstration was officially targeted for late 2026, which leaves a 3-month buffer before the 31 March 2027 deadline [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait monter. Starship V3 has already debuted and orbital flight capability is being actively flight-tested as of September 2026 [tier 1, tier 4].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The demonstration requires launching two Starships just three to four weeks apart, a turnaround cadence SpaceX has never yet achieved at Starbase [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. Starship milestone timelines have already repeatedly slipped from 2025 to late 2026, and any further slip of more than three months breaches the March 2027 deadline [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. Reports from late September 2026 indicate orbital flight attempts faced anomalies, suggesting additional troubleshooting is needed before attempting docking and cryogenic transfer [tier 4].
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether SpaceX can secure regulatory approval and achieve the pad turnaround needed to launch two Starships within a month before April 2027.

• Ce qui fait monter. The tier 1 baseline confirms Starship V3 debuted before May 2026 and the propellant transfer demonstration is scheduled for late 2026.
• Ce qui fait monter. Starship reached orbit in September 2026, marking technical progress toward the required operational flight capabilities [tier 4, corroborated by tier 1 state].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The propellant transfer milestone has already slipped from 2025 to late 2026, leaving a narrow window of under six months before the March 2027 deadline [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. The test requires executing two Starship launches only 3 to 4 weeks apart, a launch cadence SpaceX has never yet sustained for Starship [tier 1].
• Ce qui fait descendre. All recent press reports are tier 4 sources, which cannot justify an increase in probability on their own [tier 4].
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether SpaceX can achieve rapid pad turnaround and secure launch approvals for two Starships within a 3-to-4-week window before Q1 2027 ends.

• Ce qui fait monter. Starship V3 has already debuted, showing progress on the vehicle iteration [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait monter. The propellant transfer demonstration is officially planned for late 2026, keeping it on the immediate horizon [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. The milestone has already slipped from 2025 to late 2026, indicating a pattern of delays [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. The demonstration requires a launch cadence of two Starship launches within 3 to 4 weeks, which SpaceX has never yet sustained [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. Any anomaly during the first launch, docking, or transfer attempt would easily push the timeline past the March 31, 2027 deadline [tier 1]
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether SpaceX can successfully execute two Starship launches in rapid succession (3-4 weeks apart) without any major anomalies.

• Ce qui fait monter. The hand‑verified tier‑1 plan schedules the transfer demo for late 2026, within the deadline [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait monter. Recent Starship V3 launches show hardware is reaching orbit, supporting schedule feasibility [tier 4]
• Ce qui fait descendre. No official confirmation that the transfer has been performed; only plans exist [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. The cadence required (two launches 3‑4 weeks apart) has never been demonstrated, and the milestone has already slipped once [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. All news articles are tier‑4 and provide no concrete evidence of a completed transfer [tier 4]
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. An official release or NASA HLS update confirming that an in‑orbit propellant transfer has actually occurred

• Ce qui fait monter. The hand-verified starting state confirms the demonstration is explicitly planned for late 2026, which falls within the deadline [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait monter. Starship V3 has already debuted (May 2026), removing the primary hardware dependency for the transfer test [tier 4]
• Ce qui fait descendre. The milestone requires a launch cadence (two launches 3-4 weeks apart) that SpaceX has never yet sustained, increasing the risk of further slippage [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. The milestone has already slipped once from 2025 to late 2026, indicating a history of schedule delays [tier 1]
• Ce qui fait descendre. All recent press articles are Tier 4 (pickup/aggregator) and do not provide independent confirmation of a successful test or a confirmed date beyond the general 'late 2026' window [tier 4]
• Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the 'late 2026' window extends past March 2027 or if the required launch cadence will be achieved before the deadline.

Raisons non conservées pour cette révision (l'historique détaillé n'est gardé que depuis peu).