Le NIST publiera-t-il le projet initial de FIPS 206 (FN-DSA / Falcon) avant le 31 mars 2027 ?
échéance 2027-03-31
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 4
55 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Oui si un initial public draft de FIPS 206 apparaît sur csrc.nist.gov avant l'échéance.
État de départ vérifié
Au 20 juillet 2026, FIPS 206 est toujours en développement, sans draft public ni date annoncée, alors que FIPS 203, 204 et 205 sont finalisés depuis août 2024. Le draft est annoncé comme proche depuis 2025, mais l'échantillonnage gaussien en virgule flottante de Falcon pose des difficultés de spécification.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- NIST has finalized the first three PQC standards (FIPS 203, 204, 205), which likely frees up internal resources to focus on the remaining standards like FIPS 206 [1]
- The draft has been described as 'close' to completion since 2025, suggesting that the core specification work is in its final stages [1]
Ce qui fait descendre
- Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling presents significant specification and implementation difficulties that have already caused years of delay [1]
- There has been no mention of FIPS 206 or Falcon in NIST's official news updates as of October 2026, suggesting a draft is not imminent in the very short term [1]
- The draft has already missed the timeline of the other initial PQC standards by over two years, indicating that the technical hurdles are persistent [1]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether NIST has successfully resolved the technical difficulties regarding the specification of Falcon's Gaussian sampling to a level suitable for a FIPS draft.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2027-03-31 |
| Taux de base | 50% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 4 · 0 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 55 · 55 (écart 0 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-09 13:19 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-09 13:19 55% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. NIST has finalized the first three PQC standards (FIPS 203, 204, 205), which likely frees up internal resources to focus on the remaining standards like FIPS 206 [1]
- Ce qui fait monter. The draft has been described as 'close' to completion since 2025, suggesting that the core specification work is in its final stages [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling presents significant specification and implementation difficulties that have already caused years of delay [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. There has been no mention of FIPS 206 or Falcon in NIST's official news updates as of October 2026, suggesting a draft is not imminent in the very short term [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. The draft has already missed the timeline of the other initial PQC standards by over two years, indicating that the technical hurdles are persistent [1]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether NIST has successfully resolved the technical difficulties regarding the specification of Falcon's Gaussian sampling to a level suitable for a FIPS draft.
2026-10-07 09:17 24% 2 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- Ce qui fait monter. The draft has been described as close since 2025, indicating progress toward a release [tier 1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. As of 20 July 2026 no public draft exists and no release date has been announced, suggesting delays [tier 1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Falcon’s floating‑point Gaussian sampling raises specification difficulties, which could postpone publication [tier 1]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether NIST can resolve the technical specification challenges and set a concrete release schedule before March 2027
2026-09-21 17:51 62% 1 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
Raisons non conservées pour cette révision (l'historique détaillé n'est gardé que depuis peu).