Will the highest Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) accuracy score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 58.5 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-06?
échéance 2026-12-06
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
39 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if, in a snapshot of Epoch AI's benchmark data (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip, file "hle_external.csv", column "Accuracy") taken on or after 2026-12-20, at least one model with a release date on or before 2026-12-06 has a value >= 58.5 %. Reference at creation: 54.8 % (gpt-6-astra_unknown, 2026-09-03). Voided if Epoch AI revises the methodology so that values are no longer comparable, or retires the file. Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 36% of past 60-day windows in Epoch AI's benchmark data saw the running record rise by at least the required amount (threshold 0.585, current record 0.5479999999999999). Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0, epoch.ai/benchmarks. Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- The rapid pace of frontier model development, particularly reasoning-focused models like the GPT-6 series, which are designed to excel at difficult academic benchmarks like HLE [tier 1].
- There are nearly 60 days remaining before the deadline, which is a typical window for at least one major AI lab to release a new model or iteration [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre
- HLE is designed to be extremely difficult, and progress may slow down as models face increasingly complex questions [tier 1].
- No higher score has been recorded in the benchmark data since September 3, 2026, suggesting a potential short-term plateau [tier 1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether a major AI lab (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google) will release a new frontier model or a significant update before December 6, 2026.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-06 |
| Taux de base | 36% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 1 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 35 · 42 (écart 7 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-09 13:53 |
| Modèle | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-09 13:53 39% 1 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. The rapid pace of frontier model development, particularly reasoning-focused models like the GPT-6 series, which are designed to excel at difficult academic benchmarks like HLE [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. There are nearly 60 days remaining before the deadline, which is a typical window for at least one major AI lab to release a new model or iteration [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. HLE is designed to be extremely difficult, and progress may slow down as models face increasingly complex questions [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. No higher score has been recorded in the benchmark data since September 3, 2026, suggesting a potential short-term plateau [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether a major AI lab (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google) will release a new frontier model or a significant update before December 6, 2026.
2026-10-08 19:50 36% 1 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. Rapid frontier model reasoning advances have historically produced record jumps of this magnitude within a 60-day window [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Humanity's Last Exam is designed specifically to resist rapid saturation, making a +3.7 percentage point increase within two months difficult [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. No verified announcements or test results indicate an imminent model release exceeding 58.5% before December 2026 [tier 4].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether a major frontier AI lab releases a new flagship reasoning model or update between October 8 and December 6, 2026, that Epoch AI evaluates on HLE.