Will the highest Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 170.0 for a model released on or before 2026-12-06?
échéance 2026-12-06
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
44 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if, in a snapshot of Epoch AI's benchmark data (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip, file "epoch_capabilities_index/eci_scores.csv", column "eci") taken on or after 2026-12-20, at least one model with a release date on or before 2026-12-06 has a value >= 170.0. Reference at creation: 167.3 (Claude Opus 5.5, 2026-09-22). Voided if Epoch AI revises the methodology so that values are no longer comparable, or retires the file. Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 45% of past 60-day windows in Epoch AI's benchmark data saw the running record rise by at least the required amount (threshold 170, current record 167.33). Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0, epoch.ai/benchmarks. Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
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Ce qui fait monter
- Rapid frontier model release cycles from leading AI labs frequently achieve multi-point capability leaps within two-month periods [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre
- The remaining window is slightly under 60 days (58 days), giving limited time for a new frontier flagship to be released and recorded [tier 1].
- The current record of 167.33 was set relatively recently on 2026-09-22 by Claude Opus 5.5, meaning major subsequent frontier jumps may take longer to materialize [tier 1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether a major frontier lab deploys a next-generation model (e.g., from Google or OpenAI) before December 6, 2026.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-06 |
| Taux de base | 45% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 1 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 44 · 44 (écart 0 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-09 17:59 |
| Modèle | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-09 17:59 44% 4 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. Rapid frontier model release cycles from leading AI labs frequently achieve multi-point capability leaps within two-month periods [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The remaining window is slightly under 60 days (58 days), giving limited time for a new frontier flagship to be released and recorded [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. The current record of 167.33 was set relatively recently on 2026-09-22 by Claude Opus 5.5, meaning major subsequent frontier jumps may take longer to materialize [tier 1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether a major frontier lab deploys a next-generation model (e.g., from Google or OpenAI) before December 6, 2026.
2026-10-07 23:54 51% 4 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. The required increase from the confirmed baseline of 167.33 to 170.0 (+2.67 ECI points) is relatively small and achievable within a 60-day window during active release cycles.
- Ce qui fait monter. Major frontier labs frequently ship updated or fine-tuned model iterations towards the end of the calendar year.
- Ce qui fait descendre. Claims of newer models achieving scores near 169 (such as Astra [2]) come solely from tier 4 media and lack tier 1 or tier 2 corroboration.
- Ce qui fait descendre. Frontier model release schedules are subject to delays, and 60 days provides a narrow window for a confirmed release with >=170 ECI.
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether major frontier AI developers (e.g. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google) release a major model update before December 6, 2026 that is evaluated on ECI.