Will the U.S. unemployment rate for November 2026 be at least 4.2 %?
échéance 2026-12-20
confiance élevée
preuve niveau 1
64 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series UNRATE (civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, BLS data republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a rate (one decimal) of at least 4.2 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 4.2 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 52% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 4.2 %, reference 4.2 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- The unemployment rate reached 4.2% in September 2026, meaning it only needs to remain stable or increase to meet the threshold [1, 6].
- Job growth in September was significantly lower than expected at only 29,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4, 5].
- Disappointing jobs reports suggest ongoing challenges for the economy [3].
- Labor market stress in neighboring Canada suggests regional economic headwinds [0, 10].
Ce qui fait descendre
- Weekly jobless claims dipped to 197,000, which suggests the labor market may still possess underlying resilience [11].
- Some reports characterize the labor market as still being on a 'steady track' despite the slow month [2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
Whether the sharp drop in job additions in September was a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a sustained upward trend in unemployment.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-20 |
| Taux de base | 52% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 10 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 62 · 65 (écart 3 pts) |
| Confiance | élevée |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-11 09:18 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-11 09:18 64% 13 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. The unemployment rate reached 4.2% in September 2026, meaning it only needs to remain stable or increase to meet the threshold [1, 6].
- Ce qui fait monter. Job growth in September was significantly lower than expected at only 29,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4, 5].
- Ce qui fait monter. Disappointing jobs reports suggest ongoing challenges for the economy [3].
- Ce qui fait monter. Labor market stress in neighboring Canada suggests regional economic headwinds [0, 10].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Weekly jobless claims dipped to 197,000, which suggests the labor market may still possess underlying resilience [11].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Some reports characterize the labor market as still being on a 'steady track' despite the slow month [2].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the sharp drop in job additions in September was a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a sustained upward trend in unemployment.
2026-10-10 12:49 62% 9 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 U.S. payrolls increased by only 29,000 as the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, signaling decelerating labor demand [2].
- Ce qui fait monter. Persistent slowing in hiring makes an immediate two-month drop of 0.1 percentage points or more to 4.1% or lower unlikely [2].
- Ce qui fait descendre. A modest drop of just 0.1 percentage points over two months would resolve the question NO, which occurs roughly 48% of the time historically [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. initial jobless claims dipped to 197,000, signaling that layoffs remain relatively low and the labor market retains underlying resilience [4, corroborated by 2].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether October and November payroll growth rebounds enough to reverse the recent uptick in the unemployment rate by at least 0.1 percentage points.
2026-10-09 12:20 61% 6 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 unemployment rate was reported at 4.2 %, indicating the threshold is already met and could persist into November [tier 2]
- Ce qui fait monter. Recent labor‑market data show a slowdown, which historically precedes higher unemployment rates [tier 2]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Jobless claims dipped to 197,000, signaling labor‑market resilience that could keep unemployment below 4.2 % [tier 4]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Midterm‑related hiring slowdown may be temporary and not translate into higher unemployment [tier 4]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The actual October and November unemployment figures; any unexpected shift in hiring or claims trends would move the estimate most.