Will the U.S. core PCE inflation rate (12-month change, excluding food and energy) for November 2026 be at least 3.1 %?

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series PCEPILFE (personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), 12-month change computed on the published index, republished by FRED; the first published estimate is the one that counts) shows for November 2026 a 12-month percentage change of the index (index of November 2026 divided by the index of November 2025, minus 1), computed from the published index levels and rounded to one decimal, of at least 3.1 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual updates of the index, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BEA changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 3.1 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Computed base rate: 60% of past two-month changes in the 12-month core PCE inflation rate since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 3.1 %, reference 3.1 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The primary uncertainty is whether the 'acceleration' reported in September and October is a temporary fluctuation or a definitive reversal of the cooling trend observed between May and September.