Finance · English

Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of November 2026 be at least 5.45 %?

échéance 2026-12-05 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 2
23 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the last value published for November 2026 in the FRED series DGS10 (market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, daily, not seasonally adjusted (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), republished by FRED), that is the close of the last business day of the month, is at least 5.45 %. The value is read on or after 2026-12-05 and the value read at that moment is final. If the data for that month are not yet available on 2026-12-05, the check is repeated until 2026-12-15, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 5.28 % (2026-10-07). Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 28% of past 37-business-day changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 5.45 %, reference 5.28 % (2026-10-07)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Upcoming inflation data and Treasury auction demand, which could either reignite yield surges or cement the recent retreat towards lower levels.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2026-12-05
Taux de base28%
Meilleure preuveniveau 2 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations22 · 23 (écart 1 pts)
Confiancemoyenne
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-10-17 09:09
Modèlegemini-3.8-flash

Sources consultées

U.S. Treasury yields waver as traders wrap up volatile weekniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-16Dollar pulls back from 18-month high as Treasury yields fall; Fed hike bets easeniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-15Treasury yields slide as investors flee to safety of bonds amid tech routniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-15Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challengeniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-15The 10-year Treasury yield falls as energy prices stabilizeniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-10-13US 10-year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for first time since 2000, Pimco's Ivascyn tells FTniveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-09

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-17 09:09 23% 26 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Persistent structural pressures such as large federal deficits and long-term economic resilience keep upward pressure on bond yields [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Prominent bond managers have warned that 10-year yields risk reaching 6% if inflation or debt issuance trends continue [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Treasury yields have faced downward pressure following early October highs as energy prices stabilized and investors sought safe-haven assets amid tech equity volatility [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have softened, limiting near-term upside momentum in yields [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming inflation data and Treasury auction demand, which could either reignite yield surges or cement the recent retreat towards lower levels.
2026-10-16 20:05 21% 25 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Structural economic challenges, including a $2 trillion deficit, are putting upward pressure on yields [2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Pimco's managing director warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [7].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Many economists believe that the era of low bond yields is over and higher rates are here to stay [6].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Yields recently reached 24-year highs in early October, demonstrating strong upward momentum prior to the mid-month dip [15].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Treasury yields have recently pulled back from 18-month highs as bets on further Fed hikes ease [0].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. A 'flight to safety' into bonds amid a technology stock rout has driven yields lower [1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Stabilization in energy prices has reduced inflationary pressure, contributing to falling yields [4].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Market resistance was observed after recent bond auctions, with yields retreating from multiyear highs [10].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and whether upcoming inflation data triggers a renewed sell-off in bonds.
2026-10-14 09:06 25% 19 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest
  • Ce qui fait monter. Economists and major bond investors like Pimco note that persistent fiscal deficits and inflation risks could keep yields structurally elevated, with some warning yields could test even higher levels [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Yields remain at multi-decade highs, meaning ongoing supply pressures from debt issuance can easily trigger another leg up [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Yields retreated and stabilized in the week following the October 7 peak, driven by cooling energy prices and strong investor demand at recent Treasury auctions [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Market participants and policy advisors view recent yields as potentially having peaked, creating downward resistance to reaching 5.45% [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether upcoming economic and inflation data reignite inflation fears or confirm stabilizing growth and energy prices.
2026-10-12 09:06 33% 13 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest
  • Ce qui fait monter. Economists argue structural factors like heavy fiscal debt and persistent inflation mean higher bond yields are here to stay [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Pimco's Daniel Ivascyn warned of risks that the 10-year yield could reach 6% for the first time since 2000 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Treasury yields retreated from recent multi-year peaks as strong demand at Treasury auctions helped stabilize prices [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Market participants and advisors have noted yields are stretched to multiyear highs and could soon pull back [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming inflation data and Treasury auction absorption over October and November that will determine whether yields break above 5.45% or consolidate lower.
2026-10-11 09:15 33% 12 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Pimco's Ivascyn warns that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000, suggesting significant upside potential [0, tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Yields recently reached 24-year highs, indicating strong upward momentum in the current market cycle [10, tier 4]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Ongoing concerns regarding fiscal deficits and debt levels are cited as fundamental drivers for higher long-term yields [9, tier 4]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown strong demand, which typically acts as a ceiling on yield increases [6, tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Yields have shown a tendency to retreat or steady after reaching multi-year highs, suggesting a period of consolidation [1, 3, 4, tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Some market advisors suggest that current yields are 'really, really high' and may be due for a downward correction soon [5, tier 2]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the trajectory of inflation and employment data over the next 50 days, which will dictate Federal Reserve policy and market expectations.
2026-10-09 13:26 37% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. A global bond sell-off has recently pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs [5]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Pimco's Ivascyn warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [0]
  • Ce qui fait monter. The 10-year yield has shown strong upward momentum, having hit a 19-year high in September before climbing further in October [6]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent Treasury yields have retreated from their early October highs as traders weigh auction results [1, 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. A strong 10-year Treasury auction suggests robust demand, which typically acts as a downward pressure or a cap on yields [3]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is whether upcoming inflation data or Federal Reserve policy shifts will sustain the current sell-off momentum or trigger a flight to safety that lowers yields.
2026-10-09 12:50 33% 7 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
  • Ce qui fait monter. US 10‑year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for first time since 2000 (Reuters, tier 2)
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Treasury yields lower after reaching multiyear highs (CNBC, tier 2)
  • Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. Treasury Yields Retreat From Early Highs (WSJ, tier 2)
  • Ce qui fait descendre. US government bonds steady after strong 10‑year Treasury auction (Financial Times, tier 2)
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Future monetary policy stance and inflation expectations will most influence whether the yield reaches 5.45%