Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for October 2026 be at least 3.4 %?
échéance 2026-11-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
52 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-11-20 from the FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, BLS series CUUR0000SA0 republished by FRED) shows for October 2026 a 12-month percentage change of the index (index of October 2026 divided by the index of October 2025, minus 1), computed from the published index levels and rounded to one decimal, of at least 3.4 %. The value read at that moment is final (the non-seasonally-adjusted index is not revised). If the October 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-11-20, the check is repeated until 2026-11-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 3.4 % (August 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 53% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 3.4 %, reference 3.4 % in 2026-08). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- Historical persistence: In 53% of cases since 1990, the annual CPI rate has remained at or above its level from two months prior [tier 1].
- Current baseline: The official August 2026 annual CPI was 3.4%, meaning the target threshold is already the current state [tier 1, article 5].
Ce qui fait descendre
- Historical volatility: In 47% of cases, the annual CPI rate has dropped below its two-month-prior level [tier 1].
- Regional signals: August data for major areas like New York and Seattle does not indicate an accelerating inflationary trend that would guarantee a higher October print [tier 4, articles 1, 3].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The unpublished September 2026 CPI figure, which would provide the most direct signal of the inflation trend leading into October.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-11-20 |
| Taux de base | 53% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 4 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 50 · 53 (écart 3 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-10 09:15 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-10 09:15 52% 5 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. Historical persistence: In 53% of cases since 1990, the annual CPI rate has remained at or above its level from two months prior [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait monter. Current baseline: The official August 2026 annual CPI was 3.4%, meaning the target threshold is already the current state [tier 1, article 5].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Historical volatility: In 47% of cases, the annual CPI rate has dropped below its two-month-prior level [tier 1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Regional signals: August data for major areas like New York and Seattle does not indicate an accelerating inflationary trend that would guarantee a higher October print [tier 4, articles 1, 3].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The unpublished September 2026 CPI figure, which would provide the most direct signal of the inflation trend leading into October.
2026-10-09 12:26 54% 4 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The actual October 2026 CPI index level when it is finally released will determine the outcome.