Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the October 27-28, 2026 meeting?

échéance 2026-10-29 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 2

22 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the FOMC statement published after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting says the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Resolves NO if the statement says the range was maintained or lowered.

État de départ vérifié

As of the September 16, 2026 meeting, the federal funds target range was 3.75-4.00% (a 25bp increase from the prior meeting).

Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

Dallas Fed President Logan stated that interest rates still need to rise by 50 basis points [tier 2].
FOMC communications following the September hike explicitly signaled an expectation of another rate hike before year-end [tier 2].

Ce qui fait descendre

Market pricing via Fed funds futures assigns only an 18% probability to an October hike, heavily favoring a hold until December [tier 1].
Holding the meeting days before the midterm elections creates political sensitivity, providing incentive to defer any further tightening to the December meeting [tier 2].
Having already raised rates by 25 bps in September, policymakers often prefer an alternate-meeting cadence when approaching terminal rates [tier 2].

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Whether incoming inflation and labor market data between the September meeting and late October show persistent acceleration that compels the FOMC to move again immediately rather than waiting for December.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance	2026-10-29
Taux de base	18%
Meilleure preuve	niveau 2 · 4 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations	22 · 22 (écart 0 pts)
Confiance	moyenne
Plafond de preuve	non déclenché
Révisée le	2026-10-18 09:01
Modèle	gemini-3.8-flash

Sources consultées

Dallas Fed’s Logan Says Interest Rates Need to Be Half Percent Higherniveau 2 · Barron's · 2026-10-01 Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Electionsniveau 2 · The New York Times · 2026-09-25 Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this yearniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-09-16 Federal Reserve raises fed funds rate with likely more to comeniveau 2 · Financial Times · 2026-09-16

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-18 09:01 22% 57 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash

Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that interest rates still need to rise by 50 basis points [tier 2].
Ce qui fait monter. FOMC communications following the September hike explicitly signaled an expectation of another rate hike before year-end [tier 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. Market pricing via Fed funds futures assigns only an 18% probability to an October hike, heavily favoring a hold until December [tier 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Holding the meeting days before the midterm elections creates political sensitivity, providing incentive to defer any further tightening to the December meeting [tier 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. Having already raised rates by 25 bps in September, policymakers often prefer an alternate-meeting cadence when approaching terminal rates [tier 2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether incoming inflation and labor market data between the September meeting and late October show persistent acceleration that compels the FOMC to move again immediately rather than waiting for December.

2026-10-17 09:03 20% 55 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' rate hike to come in 2026 following its September meeting [3, 5].
Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Logan (Tier 2) stated that interest rates need to be 0.5% higher than current levels [0].
Ce qui fait monter. Recent inflation data is described as 'alarming,' potentially increasing the urgency for a hike [11].
Ce qui fait descendre. The October meeting occurs just before midterm elections, which may lead the Committee to prefer a pause until December [1].
Ce qui fait descendre. Market futures (ZQX26) currently price in only an 18% probability of a hike at the October meeting [Base Rate].
Ce qui fait descendre. Some market reports suggest a 66% probability that the Fed will maintain the current rate in October [8].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The estimate deviates slightly from the base rate due to hawkish Tier 2 signals from Logan [0] and the Fed's own guidance [3], though the primary uncertainty is whether the FOMC will act in October or wait until December to avoid political sensitivity before elections [1].

2026-10-16 12:00 23% 54 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC explicitly signaled one more rate hike for 2026 during the September meeting [3, 5]
Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that rates need to be 0.5% higher than current levels, suggesting two more 25bp hikes are needed [0]
Ce qui fait monter. The Fed's current policy is focused on fighting inflation, which remains a primary concern [2, 10]
Ce qui fait descendre. Market futures (ZQX26) imply a low 18% probability of a hike specifically in the October meeting [Reference]
Ce qui fait descendre. The proximity of the October meeting to the midterm elections may encourage the Committee to pause to avoid the appearance of political influence [1]
Ce qui fait descendre. A tier 4 source indicates that market odds for a pause remain high at 66% [8]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The timing of the final signaled hike of 2026, specifically whether the FOMC prefers to act in October or wait for the December meeting.

2026-10-15 09:03 36% 52 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC signaled at the September meeting that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year [tier 2].
Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Logan explicitly argued that interest rates need to be half a percentage point higher to curb inflation [tier 2].
Ce qui fait monter. The Fed demonstrated willingness to tighten policy aggressively despite external political pushback, prioritizing inflation control [tier 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. With two meetings remaining in the year and only one hike projected, the Committee may prefer to skip October and wait until December, especially given the proximity to the midterm elections [tier 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. Fed funds futures reflect skepticism about back-to-back hikes, pricing only roughly a one-in-three chance of an October increase [tier 1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the FOMC chooses to act immediately in October or wait until the December meeting to deliver the single remaining hike projected for 2026.

2026-10-06 00:59 25% 26 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash

Ce qui fait monter. The Fed signaled in September 2026 that at least one more rate hike is expected this year [tier 2, CNBC, FT].
Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Logan stated on October 1, 2026, that interest rates need to be half a percent higher, suggesting multiple hikes may still be needed [tier 2, Barron's].
Ce qui fait descendre. An October rate hike would take place immediately before the midterm elections, which is politically sensitive and may encourage the Fed to pause until December [tier 2, NYT].
Ce qui fait descendre. Having just raised rates in September, the Fed may choose to skip the October meeting to observe the lagging effects of its policy [tier 2, NYT].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming inflation and labor market data releases before the October meeting, which will determine if the Fed feels forced to act before the midterms or can wait.

2026-10-06 00:56 52% 26 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed’s Logan says rates need to be half‑percent higher, indicating a push for another hike [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. The New York Times reports a prospect of another rate increase just before the midterm elections [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. CNBC notes the September 16 decision signaled one more hike to come this year [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Financial Times states the Fed raised rates with likely more to come [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. FedWatch market data still only shows a 24% chance of a hike, reflecting modest expectations [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. No tier‑1 official statement or confirmed policy decision has been released for the October meeting, keeping uncertainty high [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Political considerations around the upcoming midterm elections may temper further tightening [tier 2]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The Fed’s internal assessment of inflation and labor‑market data released in late October could swing the decision either way.

2026-10-02 09:07 76% 18 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' interest rate hike to come in 2026 following its September meeting [3].
Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that interest rates likely need to be 50 basis points higher than current levels, suggesting two more 25bp hikes [0].
Ce qui fait monter. The Federal Reserve is maintaining a hawkish stance to ensure a 'timelier' retreat in inflation [2], [5].
Ce qui fait descendre. The signaled 'one more' hike for 2026 could occur at the November meeting instead of December, potentially leading to a pause in the final meeting of the year [3].
Ce qui fait descendre. Economists remain divided on whether further tightening is necessary, citing potential economic cooling [10].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the timing of the next hike; if the Fed acts in November to get ahead of the midterm elections as suggested by some reports [1], they may opt to hold in December unless inflation data remains unexpectedly high.

2026-09-29 18:29 83% 14 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – signals political timing for a hike [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates another move is likely [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – direct hint of a forthcoming increase [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Divided economists weigh in – some argue the Fed may pause given mixed data [tier 4]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether new inflation or labor‑market data released before the Oct 27‑28 meeting will persuade the Committee to hold rather than hike

2026-09-29 17:32 83% 14 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – market sees political timing pressure [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – explicit hint of another hike [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Federal Reserve raises fed funds rate with likely more to come – suggests continuation of tightening cycle [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates aggressive stance to curb inflation [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Divided economists weigh in – some analysts expect the Fed may pause given recent rapid hikes [tier 4]
Ce qui fait descendre. Fed Officials Don’t Sound Done Hiking – hints of possible caution or pause [tier 4]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming inflation and labor market data released just before the meeting could sway the Committee either way.

2026-09-27 09:03 40% 11 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 and signaled that another rate increase is planned before the end of the year [tier 2, article 2, 4].
Ce qui fait monter. Fed officials continue to emphasize pushing for a timelier retreat in inflation, maintaining upward pressure on interest rates [tier 2, article 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The FOMC signaled only one additional rate hike for the rest of 2026, which may occur at the pre-midterm election meeting in November rather than in December [tier 2, article 0, 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. If the Fed acts in November, the Committee is likely to maintain the rate in December to assess economic data.
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the FOMC chooses to implement its remaining projected 2026 rate hike at the November meeting or defers it to the December meeting.