Finance · English

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday October 24, 2026 be at least 205,000?

échéance 2026-10-30 confiance élevée preuve niveau 2
24 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-10-30 from the FRED series ICSA (initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted, weekly, week ending Saturday (U.S. Employment and Training Administration), republished by FRED) for the observation dated 2026-10-24 is at least 205,000. This is the advance figure published on the Thursday before; the value read at that moment is final (later weekly revisions do not change the outcome). If the 2026-10-24 observation is not yet available on 2026-10-30, the check is repeated until 2026-11-06, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 199,000 (week ending 2026-10-10). Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 23% of past two-week percentage changes in this weekly series since 2010 (excluding March 2020 - June 2021), applied to the reference level, reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 205,000, reference 199,000 (week ending 2026-10-10)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Whether seasonal adjustment factors or localized layoff volatility cause a temporary single-week spike above 205,000 despite low underlying layoff rates.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2026-10-30
Taux de base23%
Meilleure preuveniveau 2 · 3 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations22 · 25 (écart 3 pts)
Confianceélevée
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-10-18 09:02
Modèlegemini-3.8-flash

Sources consultées

US weekly jobless claims rise marginally amid low layoffsniveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-15US jobless claims hover near 57-year low for fourth consecutive weekniveau 2 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-08Historic low layoffs underpin US labor market; factory gate price pressures risingniveau 2 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-01

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-18 09:02 24% 35 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims data is naturally volatile, and a +6,000 increase is within typical short-term fluctuation bounds [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims have been hovering near 57-year lows, leaving room for upward mean-reversion toward long-term averages [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Jobless claims have stayed subdued below 200,000 for four consecutive weeks with layoffs remaining historically low [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports emphasize low firing and a steady labor market that shows few signs of immediate deterioration [tier 2]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether seasonal adjustment factors or localized layoff volatility cause a temporary single-week spike above 205,000 despite low underlying layoff rates.
2026-10-18 09:00 27% 35 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims routinely fluctuate by 5,000 to 10,000 due to normal week-to-week noise and state-level administrative variance [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims ticked up marginally from 197,000 to 199,000 in the preceding week ending October 10, narrowing the gap to 6,000 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Layoffs remain historically low with claims hovering near 57-year lows under 200,000 for several consecutive weeks [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Labor market indicators consistently show a resilient, low-layoff environment with no sudden surge in firing activity reported [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The magnitude of standard weekly statistical noise or localized layoff spikes in the advance release for the October 17 week.
2026-10-17 20:00 24% 34 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims series inherently contain short-term volatility and seasonal adjustment noise, making a 6,000 increase from 199,000 to 205,000 plausible [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Initial jobless claims edged up slightly to 199,000 in the most recent reported week, showing a minor upward tick [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial claims have consistently hovered near multi-decade lows below or around 200,000 for consecutive weeks, signaling historically low layoff activity [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The broader labor market reflects a low-fire regime where employers are holding onto existing staff despite slower hiring [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Unanticipated regional economic shocks, weather disruptions, or sudden corporate layoff announcements occurring during the week ending October 24.
2026-10-17 09:01 25% 34 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Initial claims showed a slight upward tick from 197,000 to 199,000 in the most recent reporting week [11].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly seasonally adjusted data is subject to inherent volatility, where a 6,000-claim swing is common even in stable markets.
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The U.S. labor market is characterized by 'historic low layoffs' and is on 'solid footing' [2, 6].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Jobless claims have hovered near 57-year lows for four consecutive weeks, consistently staying below the 200,000 mark [1, 12].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The prevailing 'low-hire, low-fire' environment suggests a lack of momentum for a significant spike in claims [11].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the potential for seasonal adjustment noise or minor idiosyncratic economic shocks to cause a one-week spike above the 200,000 ceiling.
2026-10-16 09:00 26% 33 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims for the intervening week ending October 10 rose marginally to 199,000, narrowing the required jump for the October 17 report to just 6,000 [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly seasonally adjusted claims figures frequently exhibit noise and random weekly swings of 6,000 or more even during periods of low layoffs [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. initial claims have hovered below 200,000 for multiple consecutive weeks near 57-year lows, supported by historically low layoff rates [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports from Reuters and WSJ emphasize a robust 'low-fire' labor market showing little momentum toward a sudden spike in claims [tier 2]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether weekly seasonal adjustments, reporting quirks, or localized temporary layoffs cause a single-week uptick of 6,000 or more.
2026-10-15 09:01 25% 26 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. A modest increase of 8,000 claims from the current 197,000 level to 205,000 is easily achieved through normal weekly noise and volatility [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Pockets of economic pressure from high mortgage rates and manufacturing gate prices could lead to localized uptick in layoffs [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. US jobless claims have experienced consecutive weekly declines, hovering near a 57-year low and indicating an extremely resilient 'low-fire' labor market [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple consecutive weeks of historically low claims signal strong labor retention by employers, suppressing headline layoff numbers [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether temporary weekly volatility or hurricane/seasonal distortions cause a brief spike in initial claims above 205,000.
2026-10-14 09:01 20% 23 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. The historical base rate for an 8,000-point increase over a two-week period is 28% [1]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Initial claims are currently at a 57-year low, which increases the statistical probability of a mean-reversion bounce or a minor increase due to weekly volatility [2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial jobless claims have hovered near 57-year lows for four consecutive weeks as of the latest Tier 2 reporting [0]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The U.S. labor market is consistently described as being on 'solid footing' with 'historic low layoffs' [1, 5]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The most recent confirmed data point is 197,000, and the trend has been downward or stable at extremely low levels for over a month [0, 2, 13]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. A sudden shift in the 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market dynamic or unexpected large-scale layoff announcements occurring before the October 17 reporting date.
2026-10-13 12:01 21% 20 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims are inherently volatile, and an 8,000-unit increase is a relatively small absolute shift in the context of historical fluctuations [12].
  • Ce qui fait monter. The base rate suggests that nearly 3 in 10 two-week periods see an increase of this magnitude [12].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial jobless claims have fallen for five consecutive weeks, reaching a 57-year low of 197,000 as of the week ending October 3 [0, 11].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The labor market is characterized by 'historic low layoffs' and a 'low-hire, low-fire' dynamic, suggesting strong resistance to sudden spikes in claims [1, 9].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple reports highlight labor market resilience and a downward trend in claims throughout September and early October [3, 4, 8].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. A sudden economic shock or a large-scale corporate layoff event not yet reflected in the early October data would be the most likely driver of a jump to 205,000.
2026-10-12 09:01 27% 15 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims series exhibits substantial week-to-week noise, and hitting multi-year lows often prompts mean-reverting bounces [tier 1, tier 4].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports indicate a resilient 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market where layoffs remain subdued, leading to five consecutive weekly declines down to 197,000 [tier 2, tier 4].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Strong downward momentum across September and early October suggests claims may stay suppressed below 205,000 in the near term [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Weekly volatility and potential seasonal adjustment anomalies or unexpected corporate layoff announcements in mid-October.
2026-10-11 09:01 22% 14 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Mean reversion is a factor as claims are currently hovering near 57-year lows, which are historically difficult to maintain [4, 6]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Inherent weekly volatility in seasonally adjusted jobless claims can easily result in swings of 10,000 or more [9]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The labor market is currently characterized as a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment with very low layoff activity [2, 6]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial jobless claims have seen five consecutive weekly declines as of the most recent data point [8]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The current level of 197,000 is significantly below the 205,000 threshold, requiring a notable trend reversal within two weeks [7]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is whether the current downward momentum in claims persists or if a sudden spike occurs due to idiosyncratic economic shocks or seasonal adjustment noise.