Will NASA GISS report a global surface temperature anomaly of at least +1.65 °C (vs. 1951–1980) for December 2026?
échéance 2027-01-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
29 %estimation Asturna
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the NASA GISS file GISTEMP v4 land-ocean monthly means (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv), read for the first time on or after 2027-01-20, shows a value >= +1.65 °C for December 2026 (row 2026, column Dec). The value read at that moment is final; later revisions do not change the outcome. If the value is not yet published on 2027-01-20, the check is repeated until 2027-01-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if NASA changes the dataset version or the 1951–1980 baseline. Reference at creation: +1.55 °C (October 2026). Data: GISTEMP Team, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 27% of two-month changes in the NASA GISTEMP monthly anomaly since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 1.65 °C rounded up to 0.05 °C; reference 1.55 °C in 2026-10). Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- Current October 2026 anomaly is +1.55 °C, only 0.10 °C below the +1.65 °C threshold, suggesting a modest upward trend could push December over the mark [tier 1]
Ce qui fait descendre
- Historically only about a quarter of two‑month periods achieve such a large increase, indicating it is relatively uncommon [tier 1]
- No specific forecast or announced data points to a December value ≥ +1.65 °C, leaving the estimate reliant on past frequencies [tier 1]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The actual December 2026 temperature anomaly when the GISTEMP file is released
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2027-01-20 |
| Taux de base | 27% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 1 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 27 · 30 (écart 3 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-11-13 07:50 |
| Modèle | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consultées