Climat · English

Will NASA GISS report a global surface temperature anomaly of at least +1.40 °C (vs. 1951–1980) for November 2026?

échéance 2026-12-20 confiance moyenne preuve niveau 1
49 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the NASA GISS file GISTEMP v4 land-ocean monthly means (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv), read for the first time on or after 2026-12-20, shows a value >= +1.40 °C for November 2026 (row 2026, column Nov). The value read at that moment is final; later revisions do not change the outcome. If the value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if NASA changes the dataset version or the 1951–1980 baseline. Reference at creation: +1.38 °C (September 2026). Data: GISTEMP Team, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 46% of two-month changes in the NASA GISTEMP monthly anomaly since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 1.4 °C rounded up to 0.05 °C; reference 1.38 °C in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

Late-autumn atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface temperature trends throughout November 2026.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2026-12-20
Taux de base46%
Meilleure preuveniveau 1 · 1 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations48 · 49 (écart 1 pts)
Confiancemoyenne
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-10-18 09:08
Modèlegemini-3.7-flash

Sources consultées

NASA GISS (GISTEMP v4) - official data series that settles this questionniveau 1 · NASA GISS (GISTEMP v4) · 2026-10-18

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-18 09:08 49% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 GISTEMP anomaly reached +1.38 °C, requiring only a modest +0.02 °C rise to meet the threshold [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Early Copernicus ERA5 data for the first 16 days of October 2026 shows a warm anomaly of +0.83 °C vs 1991–2020, pointing to sustained global warmth into late autumn [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Month-to-month volatility in global temperature anomalies routinely exceeds 0.05 °C, making negative fluctuations common [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Historical two-month anomaly changes from this baseline yield an empirical base rate below 50% (46%) [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Late-autumn atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface temperature trends throughout November 2026.
2026-10-18 09:07 40% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. August 2026 established a high baseline of +1.40 °C, requiring only a modest +0.05 °C two-month rise to reach the resolution threshold [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis for the first 16 days of October 2026 shows a warm global anomaly of +0.83 °C against the 1991–2020 baseline [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Historically, only 38% of two-month increments achieve a +0.05 °C gain, reflecting frequent short-term monthly volatility [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The 16-day ERA5 metric is an incomplete, partial-month signal and differs in methodology and baseline from the final GISTEMP v4 land-ocean calculation [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The evolution of global temperatures during the second half of October 2026 and the exact land-ocean blending in the final NASA GISTEMP v4 calculation.
2026-10-17 09:10 50% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 was already high at +1.38 °C, requiring an increase of only +0.02 °C to reach the +1.40 °C threshold [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first 15 days of October 2026 shows a strong anomaly of +0.83 °C relative to 1991–2020, indicating continued high global anomalies entering late 2026 [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Two-month temperature fluctuations frequently swing downward by several hundredths of a degree Celsius due to standard monthly climate variability [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Partial ERA5 data covers only half of October and represents a weak leading indicator that does not ensure elevated temperatures will persist through November [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The magnitude of month-to-month global climate variability and sea-surface temperature changes between September and November 2026.
2026-10-17 09:08 41% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. August 2026 recorded a high baseline of +1.40 °C, requiring an increase of only +0.05 °C to meet the +1.45 °C threshold [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Early Copernicus ERA5 data for the first 15 days of October 2026 shows an anomaly of +0.83 °C vs. 1991–2020, which roughly converts to near the +1.45 °C mark against 1951–1980 [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Historically, two-month positive shifts of +0.05 °C or more occur only 38% of the time, establishing a sub-50% prior [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The 15-day ERA5 indicator is a partial month observation subject to weather-driven fluctuations in the second half of October, and ERA5 differs methodologically from NASA GISTEMP [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Available press updates offer no specific preliminary numbers for the full GISTEMP October anomaly [tier 1, tier 4].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether global land and sea surface temperature anomalies in the second half of October 2026 stay elevated enough to keep the full-month GISTEMP average at or above +1.45 °C.
2026-10-16 20:08 55% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. The required increase from the September 2026 reference of +1.38 °C to the +1.40 °C threshold is only +0.02 °C [3].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Early ERA5 data for the first half of October 2026 shows a high anomaly (+0.82 °C vs 1991–2020), which typically translates to a GISTEMP anomaly above 1.40 °C when adjusted to the 1951–1980 baseline [1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Monthly global temperature anomalies are subject to significant short-term volatility, which can easily offset the current warming trend [3].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The historical base rate for this specific two-month change is slightly below 50%, suggesting that a minor decline or stagnation is statistically common [3].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The degree of temperature persistence between October and November 2026 and the potential for short-term cooling fluctuations.
2026-10-15 20:01 35% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Baseline temperatures remain near record warmth, with August 2026 at +1.40 °C requiring only a modest +0.05 °C increase to hit the threshold [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Early Copernicus ERA5 data for the first 13 days of October 2026 indicates a high anomaly of +0.82 °C above 1991–2020, confirming sustained warmth [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The historical two-month transition base rate to gain +0.05 °C from August to October is modest at 38% [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. An ERA5 anomaly of +0.82 °C against 1991–2020 roughly equates to approximately +1.40 °C to +1.43 °C against the 1951–1980 baseline, tracking slightly below the required +1.45 °C [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether global temperature anomalies in the second half of October accelerate enough to lift the monthly average over +1.45 °C in the GISTEMP v4 processing.
2026-10-14 09:07 49% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest
  • Ce qui fait monter. The required increase from September 2026 (+1.38 °C) to reach the +1.40 °C threshold is only +0.02 °C, well within typical positive monthly variance [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Early Copernicus ERA5 data for the first 12 days of October 2026 shows an anomaly of +0.81 °C vs. 1991–2020, indicating continued high global warmth roughly consistent with ~1.4 °C on the 1951–1980 baseline [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Base rate analysis indicates two-month changes reach the required threshold only 46% of the time, reflecting natural month-to-month volatility [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Monthly global temperature anomalies frequently drop by 0.05 °C to 0.15 °C between early autumn and late autumn depending on ENSO phase and oceanic variability [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The trajectory of global sea surface temperatures and ENSO conditions between October and November 2026, which drive short-term swings in global anomalies.
2026-10-14 09:07 39% 3 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest
  • Ce qui fait monter. August 2026 anomaly was already high at +1.40 °C, meaning only a modest +0.05 °C increase is needed to meet the threshold [tier 1]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Copernicus ERA5 early data for the first 12 days of October 2026 shows a +0.81 °C anomaly relative to 1991–2020, which roughly translates to ~1.44–1.48 °C relative to the 1951–1980 GISTEMP baseline [tier 1]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The two-month historical base rate for an anomaly increase of this magnitude is 38%, reflecting seasonal and natural month-to-month variability [tier 1]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Twelve days of ERA5 data cover less than half the month and represent an early, volatile indicator that may not reflect full-month land-ocean GISTEMP v4 averages [tier 1]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Global weather patterns and sea surface temperatures over the second half of October 2026, which could easily shift the final monthly average above or below 1.45 °C.
2026-10-13 09:17 58% 2 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. The required increase from the September 2026 anomaly of +1.38 °C to the +1.40 °C threshold is a very small margin of 0.02 °C [1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Early ERA5 indicator data for October 2026 (+0.81 °C vs 1991-2020) suggests a high global anomaly that, when adjusted to the GISTEMP baseline, likely exceeds 1.40 °C [1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Monthly global temperature anomalies are subject to significant short-term volatility from weather patterns and natural variability [1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The historical base rate for this specific two-month delta is slightly below 50%, indicating that such an increase is not guaranteed despite the warming trend [1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Short-term atmospheric variability and the specific state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in late 2026.
2026-10-13 09:07 39% 2 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest
  • Ce qui fait monter. August 2026 set a high baseline at +1.40 °C, requiring only a +0.05 °C upward shift to resolve YES [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Copernicus ERA5 early October data (first 11 days) indicates an anomaly of +0.81 °C vs. 1991–2020, which translates roughly to the threshold range vs. 1951–1980 [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Historically, only 38% of two-month steps achieve the necessary +0.05 °C rise, making a drop or sub-threshold reading the base-case outcome [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The ERA5 indicator covers only 11 days of October and represents an incomplete partial-month sample subject to late-month variability [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Late-month Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and weather systems across the remainder of October 2026.