Finance · English

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday October 31, 2026 be at least 200,000?

échéance 2026-11-06 confiance élevée preuve niveau 1
20 %estimation Asturna

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-11-06 from the FRED series ICSA (initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted, weekly, week ending Saturday (U.S. Employment and Training Administration), republished by FRED) for the observation dated 2026-10-31 is at least 200,000. This is the advance figure published on the Thursday before; the value read at that moment is final (later weekly revisions do not change the outcome). If the 2026-10-31 observation is not yet available on 2026-11-06, the check is repeated until 2026-11-13, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 194,000 (week ending 2026-10-17). Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

État de départ vérifié

Computed base rate: 22% of past two-week percentage changes in this weekly series since 2010 (excluding March 2020 - June 2021), applied to the reference level, reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 200,000, reference 194,000 (week ending 2026-10-17)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que Asturna n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

Ce qui fait descendre

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

The primary uncertainty is whether the inherent weekly noise in the seasonally adjusted data will outweigh the current downward trend and push the figure above the 200,000 mark.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance2026-11-06
Taux de base22%
Meilleure preuveniveau 1 · 8 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations20 · 20 (écart 0 pts)
Confianceélevée
Plafond de preuvenon déclenché
Révisée le2026-10-24 11:43
Modèlegemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consultées

U.S. Jobless Claims Return to Downward Trendniveau 2 · WSJ · 2026-10-22US weekly jobless claims rise marginally amid low layoffsniveau 2 · Reuters · 2026-10-15US jobless claims hover near 57-year low for fourth consecutive weekniveau 2 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-08Historic low layoffs underpin US labor market; factory gate price pressures risingniveau 2 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-01US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lowsniveau 4 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-22US Jobless Claims Fall to 194K, Continuing Claims Edge Higherniveau 4 · ActionForex · 2026-10-22US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows, underscore labor market stabilityniveau 4 · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-22U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - official data series that settles this questionniveau 1 · U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 2026-10-24

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-24 11:43 20% 48 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly volatility in the initial jobless claims series can frequently result in fluctuations of 6,000 or more, even during periods of labor market strength [2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Continuing claims have shown a slight upward edge recently, which can sometimes precede a rise in initial claims [15].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial claims have recently returned to a downward trend according to tier 2 reporting [0].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Layoffs are currently described as being at historic lows, underpinning overall labor market stability [3].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple sources confirm the current level of 194,000 is near 57-year lows, suggesting a very strong labor market floor [2, 14, 17].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is whether the inherent weekly noise in the seasonally adjusted data will outweigh the current downward trend and push the figure above the 200,000 mark.
2026-10-23 12:00 17% 47 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims data exhibits inherent volatility and seasonal adjustment noise that can cause sharp week-over-week increases [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Historical two-week fluctuations from a similar baseline level reached or exceeded this threshold in roughly 23% of sample periods [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17 fell further to 194,000, increasing the distance needed to reach 205,000 for the week ending October 24 [tier 2, tier 4].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Multiple reports corroborate a persistent pattern of near-record low layoffs and robust labor market stability throughout September and October 2026 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Unanticipated short-term disruptions, such as severe weather events or sudden major corporate announcements, causing a sharp one-week spike in filing volume.
2026-10-22 09:07 22% 39 article(s) au dossier · gemini-flash-latest
  • Ce qui fait monter. A 6,000-claim rise from 199,000 is well within routine week-to-week statistical volatility and autumn seasonal adjustment noise [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims rose marginally in the latest week ending October 10 to 199,000, indicating an upward drift from late-September lows [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Wire reporting consistently characterizes the U.S. labor market as underpinned by historically low layoffs and holding below 200,000 for consecutive weeks [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The historical base rate shows that only 23% of two-week windows produce a percentage increase sufficient to cross this threshold [tier 1].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Weekly volatility in initial filings or potential localized disruption in late October that could push claims above the 200,000 mark by more than 6,000.
2026-10-22 09:01 25% 39 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.7-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly seasonally adjusted claims naturally carry high noise, where swings of 6,000 or more in a single week are common [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims ticked upward from 197,000 to 199,000 in the intervening week ending October 10, showing slight upward drift [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The labor market is underpinned by historically low layoffs, keeping claims hovering near 57-year lows under 200,000 for consecutive weeks [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. With claims sitting at 199,000 for the prior week, reaching 205,000 requires an uncharacteristic 6,000 single-week surge during an otherwise stable low-fire period [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether temporary localized factors (such as weather disruptions or seasonal adjustment anomalies) caused an abrupt one-week bump of 6,000 or more in claims.
2026-10-21 09:09 28% 37 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. A modest increase of 6,000 claims from the reference level of 199,000 is well within standard week-to-week statistical volatility [tier 1, #16].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims have recently ticked up slightly from 197,000 to 199,000, showing mild upward fluctuations [tier 2, #0; tier 3, #9].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate sustained strength with layoffs hovering near 57-year lows [tier 2, #1, #2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Consistent reports highlight a persistent low-hire, low-fire dynamic that keeps initial claims suppressed under 200,000 [tier 2, #0, #6; tier 4, #13].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Unanticipated short-term noise or seasonal adjustment artifacts in weekly labor reporting.
2026-10-21 09:06 26% 37 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims data exhibit routine short-term noise, seasonal adjustment variance, and minor weekly fluctuations [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims have edged up slightly in recent weeks from 197,000 to 199,000, putting the 205,000 threshold only 6,000 claims away [tier 2, tier 4].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Initial jobless claims have hovered below 200,000 near a 57-year low for over a month, reflecting a persistent low-layoff labor market [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Mainstream reporting highlights that corporate layoffs remain exceptionally subdued across major sectors [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether weekly noise or unexpected localized layoff spikes briefly push the advance claim count above 205,000 despite overall tight labor market conditions.
2026-10-20 09:01 25% 37 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
  • Ce qui fait monter. Initial jobless claims rose from 197,000 to 199,000 in the most recent reporting week (ending Oct 10), narrowing the gap to the 205,000 threshold [0, 13]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly jobless claims data is inherently volatile and subject to seasonal adjustment fluctuations [0, 15]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The U.S. labor market is repeatedly described by multiple sources as being in a 'low-fire' state with 'historic low layoffs' [2, 13]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Jobless claims have hovered near 57-year lows for over a month, indicating a high level of stability that resists large upward spikes [1, 9, 10]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. The required 6,000-point increase in a single week (from 199,000 to 205,000) is significant given the current trend of marginal changes [0, 11]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The potential for unexpected localized layoffs or noise in the seasonal adjustment process for the mid-October period.
2026-10-19 09:07 23% 35 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims figures inherently experience volatility, and an increase of just 6,000 claims (around 3%) from the 199,000 baseline is well within normal weekly noise [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims inched higher to 199,000 in the most recent release, showing some slight upward drift rather than continued declines [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Historical two-week transition rates from this baseline level reach the 205,000 threshold only 23% of the time [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Claims have hovered near 57-year lows below 200,000 for several consecutive weeks amid persistently low layoffs and solid labor market conditions [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether seasonal adjustment factors or temporary layoff spikes create an abrupt upward shift of at least 6,000 claims despite strong underlying labor market retention.
2026-10-19 09:02 28% 35 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial jobless claims exhibit regular volatility with weekly swings of 5,000 to 10,000 occurring frequently due to seasonal adjustment noise and state-level fluctuations [tier 1].
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims ticked up slightly to 199,000 for the week ending October 10, narrowing the gap to 205,000 to just 6,000 [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. initial jobless claims have hovered persistently below 200,000 for four consecutive weeks, indicating historic lows in layoffs and a stable labor market [tier 2].
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Reporting consistently points to an entrenched low-fire environment with no imminent signs of widespread labor shedding [tier 2].
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Weekly administrative or seasonal adjustment volatility in state unemployment filings for mid-October.
2026-10-18 09:02 24% 35 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.8-flash
  • Ce qui fait monter. Weekly initial claims data is naturally volatile, and a +6,000 increase is within typical short-term fluctuation bounds [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait monter. Claims have been hovering near 57-year lows, leaving room for upward mean-reversion toward long-term averages [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Jobless claims have stayed subdued below 200,000 for four consecutive weeks with layoffs remaining historically low [tier 2]
  • Ce qui fait descendre. Recent reports emphasize low firing and a steady labor market that shows few signs of immediate deterioration [tier 2]
  • Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether seasonal adjustment factors or localized layoff volatility cause a temporary single-week spike above 205,000 despite low underlying layoff rates.