Will Exelixis announce topline results from the STELLAR-304 trial of zanzalintinib in advanced non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma by March 31, 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
61%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 65%, brought back to 61% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than March 31, 2027, Exelixis publicly reports the topline results of the STELLAR-304 trial of zanzalintinib (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("First Quarter of 2027"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 30, 2026: according to the Exelixis filing of October 29, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "First Quarter of 2027". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/939767/000093976726000114/exel20260930exhibit991.htm
What pushes it up
- Statement of intent in Exelixis' October 29, 2026 SEC filing that topline results are expected in the First Quarter of 2027 [1]
What would move this number most
Whether the trial data are ready and meet regulatory expectations by the end of Q1 2027
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 63 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 65% brought back to 61% |
| Last revised | 2026-11-02 12:08 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |