Will Dyne Therapeutics announce topline results from the ACHIEVE trial of z-basivarsen in myotonic dystrophy type 1 by March 31, 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence low
tier 3 evidence
70%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than March 31, 2027, Dyne Therapeutics publicly reports the topline results of the ACHIEVE trial of z-basivarsen (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("first quarter of 2027"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of November 7, 2026: according to the Dyne Therapeutics filing of November 5, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "first quarter of 2027". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818794/000181879426000013/dyn-ex99_1.htm
What pushes it up
- Dyne's SEC filing explicitly expects topline results in Q1 2027, indicating a formal commitment [tier 1]
- Recent presentation of additional one‑year data shows the trial is progressing and on schedule [tier 3]
What pushes it down
- Only interim data have been released so far; no final analysis has been shipped, suggesting the timeline may be optimistic [tier 3]
- The announced Q1 2027 date is a statement of intent, not a confirmed milestone, which is a weaker signal [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Whether the trial can complete data collection and analysis in time to issue topline results by the end of Q1 2027
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 65% |
| Best evidence | tier 3 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 45 · 60 · 70 · 80 · 80 (spread 35 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-07 16:32 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted