Will Phathom Pharmaceuticals announce topline results from the pHalcon-EoE-201 trial of VOQUEZNA in Eosinophilic Esophagitis by December 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
71%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 78%, brought back to 71% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than December 31, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals publicly reports the topline results of the pHalcon-EoE-201 trial of VOQUEZNA (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("fourth quarter 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 30, 2026: according to the Phathom Pharmaceuticals filing of October 29, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "fourth quarter 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783183/000119312526436959/d180192dex991.htm
What pushes it up
- SEC filing of Oct 29 2026 states the company expects topline results in Q4 2026 [tier 1]
- GlobeNewswire article notes patient enrollment was completed ahead of schedule, indicating trial progress [tier 4]
What pushes it down
- The filing is only an expectation, not a guarantee, and delays are common in late‑stage trial readouts [tier 1]
- The supporting enrollment article is tier 4 and lacks corroboration, limiting its strength
What would move this number most
Whether the data readout can be completed and released on schedule without unforeseen delays
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 65% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 68 · 73 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 78% brought back to 71% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-30 15:28 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted