Will Axsome Therapeutics announce topline results from the ENGAGE trial of solriamfetol in binge eating disorder by March 31, 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
59%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 65%, brought back to 59% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than March 31, 2027, Axsome Therapeutics publicly reports the topline results of the ENGAGE trial of solriamfetol (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("first quarter of 2027"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of November 3, 2026: according to the Axsome Therapeutics filing of November 2, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "first quarter of 2027". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526442628/axsm-ex99_1.htm
What pushes it up
- The company’s own SEC filing (tier 1) states it expects topline results in the first quarter of 2027, which directly includes the March 31 deadline
What pushes it down
- Biotech trial‑result announcements often slip due to data‑analysis or regulatory delays, a common source of missed timelines
What would move this number most
Whether the trial data will be ready and approved for public release by the end of Q1 2027
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 60 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 65% brought back to 59% |
| Last revised | 2026-11-03 15:00 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |