Will Kodiak Sciences announce topline results from the PEAK trial of KSI-101 in macular edema secondary to inflammation by December 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
64%Asturna estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 65%, brought back to 64% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than December 31, 2026, Kodiak Sciences publicly reports the topline results of the PEAK trial of KSI-101 (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("December 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 28, 2026: according to the Kodiak Sciences filing of September 28, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "December 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468748/000119312526403481/d185059dex991.htm
What pushes it up
- The SEC filing on Sep 28 2026 states the company expects topline results in December 2026 (tier 1)
- Both recent articles note the PEAK readout is scheduled for Sept–Dec 2026, reinforcing the timeline (tier 4)
What pushes it down
- The filing is an expectation, not a guarantee, and biotech readout timelines are often delayed
- Only tier 4 press coverage is available, providing weak corroboration and no concrete evidence that data are ready
What would move this number most
Whether the trial data will be finalized and approved for public release by the end of December 2026
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 63 · 65 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 65% brought back to 64% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-28 15:07 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted