Will Vir Biotechnology announce topline results from the ECLIPSE 1 trial of elebsiran and tobevibart in chronic hepatitis delta by December 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
64%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than December 31, 2026, Vir Biotechnology publicly reports the topline results of the ECLIPSE 1 trial of elebsiran and tobevibart (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("fourth quarter of 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of November 6, 2026: according to the Vir Biotechnology filing of November 4, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "fourth quarter of 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706431/000162828026070148/a20261104-q3ex991earningsr.htm
What pushes it up
- SEC filing on 2026-11-04 states the company expects topline results in Q4 2026 [tier 1]
- Business Wire article notes Vir plans to present topline data at AASLD meeting in Q4 [tier 4]
What pushes it down
- The filing is only an expectation, and many biotech trials experience analysis or regulatory delays, reducing confidence
What would move this number most
Whether data generation and analysis will be completed on schedule without unforeseen delays
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 60 · 68 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-06 21:53 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted