Will Mirum Pharmaceuticals announce topline results from the AZURE-4 trial of brelovitug in chronic hepatitis delta virus by December 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
85%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than December 31, 2026, Mirum Pharmaceuticals publicly reports the topline results of the AZURE-4 trial of brelovitug (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("Q4 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of November 4, 2026: according to the Mirum Pharmaceuticals filing of November 3, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "Q4 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000061/mirm-20261103xexx991.htm
What pushes it up
- Mirum's official SEC filing on November 3, 2026 explicitly expected topline results in 'Q4 2026', just two days prior to today's date [tier 1].
- Positive momentum in the brelovitug HDV program following successful Phase 3 AZURE-1 results reported in late September 2026 [tier 4].
What pushes it down
- Unforeseen data lock, database clean-up, or statistical analysis delays could push the readout slightly past December 31 into early Q1 2027.
- The remaining window before the year-end deadline is brief (less than two months).
What would move this number most
Whether data lock and preliminary statistical analysis for AZURE-4 are completed on schedule before the end of December 2026.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 82 · 88 (spread 6 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-05 09:02 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted