Will Biomea Fusion announce topline results from the GLP-131 trial of BMF-650 in obesity in otherwise healthy volunteers by October 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-10-31
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
97%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than October 31, 2026, Biomea Fusion publicly reports the topline results of the GLP-131 trial of BMF-650 (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("October 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 11, 2026: according to the Biomea Fusion filing of September 22, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "October 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1840439/000119312526397870/bmea-20260922.htm
What pushes it up
- Fierce Biotech reported on October 14, 2026, that Biomea has already posted Phase 1 clinical data for oral GLP-1 BMF-650 [tier 2].
- Multiple trade and market outlets corroborated that Biomea Fusion discussed and released Phase 1 topline results and an accompanying slideshow on October 14, 2026, within the October window [tier 4].
What pushes it down
- Without direct inspection of the primary press release or SEC filing text, there is a minor risk that the October 14 disclosure was an interim or incomplete summary rather than the full formal topline readout of the primary endpoint [tier 2].
What would move this number most
Whether the Phase 1 disclosure reported on October 14 fully satisfied the technical criteria for primary endpoint topline reporting under the trial protocol.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-31 |
| Base rate | 85% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 96 · 97 (spread 1 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-18 09:03 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-18 09:03 97% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3.8-flash
- What pushes it up. Fierce Biotech reported on October 14, 2026, that Biomea has already posted Phase 1 clinical data for oral GLP-1 BMF-650 [tier 2].
- What pushes it up. Multiple trade and market outlets corroborated that Biomea Fusion discussed and released Phase 1 topline results and an accompanying slideshow on October 14, 2026, within the October window [tier 4].
- What pushes it down. Without direct inspection of the primary press release or SEC filing text, there is a minor risk that the October 14 disclosure was an interim or incomplete summary rather than the full formal topline readout of the primary endpoint [tier 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether the Phase 1 disclosure reported on October 14 fully satisfied the technical criteria for primary endpoint topline reporting under the trial protocol.
2026-10-17 09:05 99% 5 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. Tier 2 and Tier 4 sources report that Biomea Fusion released Phase 1 topline results for BMF-650 on October 14, 2026 [0, 1, 2].
- What pushes it up. The release occurred within the 'October 2026' window previously guided by the company in its SEC filing [1, 4].
- What pushes it down. The resolution depends on the specific 'GLP-131' trial designation, and while BMF-650 Phase 1 data was released, any technical omission of specific primary endpoints could theoretically affect resolution [0].
- What would move this number most. Confirmation that the data released on October 14 constitutes the full topline results for the GLP-131 trial specifically.
2026-10-12 20:00 77% 0 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. Biomea Fusion's SEC filing from September 22, 2026 reiterated expected topline results in 'October 2026', providing very recent official guidance [1].
- What pushes it up. There are still 19 days remaining in October 2026 to report the results as planned.
- What pushes it down. Clinical trial data readouts frequently slip past target windows due to routine data cleaning, verification delays, or strategic conference scheduling.
- What pushes it down. Almost half of October has passed with no release yet, narrowing the remaining window.
- What would move this number most. Whether database lock and final primary-endpoint analysis are completed and approved for disclosure before October 31 or slip into early November.