Will a Pasqal system with at least 1,000 physical qubits be accessible to external users before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
18%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Pasqal announces the availability (cloud, computing centre, or customer installation) of a machine with at least 1,000 physical qubits.
Verified starting state
On 11 June 2026 Pasqal inaugurated Italy's first neutral-atom quantum computer at CINECA, its third system in Europe. Its roadmap shows scaling beyond 1,000 qubits and 200+ logical qubits in 2029. Deployed systems remain in the hundreds-of-qubits range.
What pushes it up
- Neutral-atom optical trap architectures can scale physical qubit numbers relatively rapidly compared to superconducting qubits, and Pasqal continues to secure heavy funding such as the €50 million Q-PLANET project [tier 4, article 2].
- Pasqal continues progress in qubit control techniques and expanding deployments [tier 4, article 4].
What pushes it down
- Pasqal's official tier 1 roadmap explicitly targets scaling beyond 1,000 physical qubits in 2029, more than a year after the December 2027 deadline [tier 1].
- Currently deployed commercial systems at CINECA and other European centres remain limited to the hundreds-of-qubits range [tier 1].
- Hardware roadmaps in quantum computing historically face delays rather than being accelerated by more than a year.
What would move this number most
Whether Pasqal can deploy an early experimental or analog neutral-atom system with 1,000+ trapped physical atoms ahead of its gate-model roadmap targeting 2029.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 15 · 20 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-11 09:13 |
| Model | gemini-3.7-flash |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-11 09:13 18% 13 article(s) on file · gemini-3.7-flash
- What pushes it up. Neutral-atom optical trap architectures can scale physical qubit numbers relatively rapidly compared to superconducting qubits, and Pasqal continues to secure heavy funding such as the €50 million Q-PLANET project [tier 4, article 2].
- What pushes it up. Pasqal continues progress in qubit control techniques and expanding deployments [tier 4, article 4].
- What pushes it down. Pasqal's official tier 1 roadmap explicitly targets scaling beyond 1,000 physical qubits in 2029, more than a year after the December 2027 deadline [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Currently deployed commercial systems at CINECA and other European centres remain limited to the hundreds-of-qubits range [tier 1].
- What pushes it down. Hardware roadmaps in quantum computing historically face delays rather than being accelerated by more than a year.
- What would move this number most. Whether Pasqal can deploy an early experimental or analog neutral-atom system with 1,000+ trapped physical atoms ahead of its gate-model roadmap targeting 2029.
2026-09-22 00:37 14% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).