Will NIST publish a draft FIPS standard covering HQC before 30 June 2027?

• What pushes it up. NIST officially selected HQC for standardization in March 2025 (NIST IR 8545) to ensure cryptographic diversity beyond lattice-based schemes [1].
• What pushes it up. The deadline of June 2027 provides a total window of 27 months from selection, which is significantly longer than the 13-month timeline used for the first batch of PQC standards [1].
• What pushes it down. As of July 2026, HQC was already 16 months post-selection without a draft, exceeding the timeline established by ML-KEM and ML-DSA [1].
• What pushes it down. NIST is currently managing a heavy workload, including FIPS 206, the third signature round, and multiple Special Publications, which may delay HQC [1].
• What pushes it down. Recent official NIST updates from September and October 2026 do not mention progress on HQC or PQC drafts [1].
• What would move this number most. Whether NIST's current prioritization of the additional signature competition and the finalization of the first three PQC standards will push the HQC draft into late 2027 or 2028.

• What pushes it up. HQC is the primary code-based KEM selected for standardization to provide diversity as a backup to lattice-based schemes [Starting State]
• What pushes it up. NIST IR 8545 officially committed to standardizing HQC in March 2025, and the deadline allows for a total of 27 months from selection to draft [Starting State]
• What pushes it down. NIST is currently managing a heavy parallel workload including FIPS 206, the third signature round, and multiple Special Publications [Starting State]
• What pushes it down. As of October 2026, 19 months have passed since selection without a draft, exceeding the 13-month timeline seen for the first batch of PQC standards [Starting State]
• What pushes it down. HQC is designated as a backup or alternative to ML-KEM, which may result in lower prioritization compared to primary standards or new signature schemes [3, 4]
• What would move this number most. Whether NIST's current focus on signature schemes and other cybersecurity initiatives will push the HQC draft beyond the 27-month window.

• What pushes it up. NIST officially selected HQC for standardization in March 2025 in NIST IR 8545, confirming its commitment to standardize a code-based alternative to lattice algorithms [1].
• What pushes it up. There are still more than eight months remaining before the June 30, 2027 deadline, providing adequate time for NIST to publish a draft FIPS standard [1].
• What pushes it down. Over 19 months have elapsed since HQC's selection in March 2025 without a draft publication, reflecting potential delays due to competing NIST priorities like FIPS 206 and additional signature rounds [1].
• What pushes it down. Recent press coverage consists entirely of tier 4 articles that provide no updated timeline or official progress reports on HQC drafting [4].
• What would move this number most. Whether NIST prioritizes publishing the HQC draft standard within its current workload over the next eight months.

• What pushes it up. HQC was officially selected for standardization in March 2025, establishing a clear intent to produce a FIPS [Tier 1].
• What pushes it up. The deadline of June 2027 allows for a total of 27 months from selection, which is significantly longer than the 13 months taken for the initial PQC drafts [Tier 1].
• What pushes it down. As of October 2026, 19 months have passed without a draft, already exceeding the 13-month timeline established by the first PQC batch [Tier 1].
• What pushes it down. NIST is currently managing a heavy workload including FIPS 206 and additional signature rounds, which may deprioritize HQC [Tier 1].
• What pushes it down. HQC is positioned as a backup to lattice-based schemes, which may reduce the urgency for its draft publication compared to primary standards [Tier 4].
• What would move this number most. NIST's internal prioritization of HQC (a code-based scheme) relative to the ongoing development of additional signature schemes and the finalization of FIPS 206.

• What pushes it up. The 18-month mark from selection (March 2025) is approaching (September 2026), and NIST has a history of publishing drafts around this timeframe [tier 1 - Hand-verified state]
• What pushes it down. NIST is currently running FIPS 206 (third signature round) and several SPs in parallel, which may delay HQC drafting [tier 1 - Hand-verified state]
• What pushes it down. HQC is described as a 'backup' to ML-KEM, suggesting lower priority in the drafting queue [tier 4 - shattered.io]
• What would move this number most. Whether NIST prioritizes the HQC draft over the ongoing FIPS 206 and other SPs in the next 9 months.

Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).