Will Infleqtion announce a system with at least 30 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
94%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Infleqtion announces or publishes a demonstration of at least 30 logical qubits encoded with error correction.
Verified starting state
Infleqtion is publicly targeting a 30-logical-qubit demonstration system in 2026, within a roadmap aiming at 1,000 logical qubits in 2030. The company delivered a 100-physical-qubit system to the UK NQCC in March 2026 and reported 12 logical qubits in December 2025. It has fewer physical qubits than QuEra or Atom Computing.
What pushes it up
- A tier 2 source reports that Infleqtion has already added a 50 logical-qubit system to the Chicago Quantum Hub as of July 2026 [0].
- Infleqtion explicitly announced reaching the 30 logical-qubit milestone at the QWC 2026 conference in September 2026 [5].
- The company has established a strategic partnership with Riverlane to integrate real-time error correction decoders, directly addressing the technical requirement for logical qubits [2].
What pushes it down
- Infleqtion maintains a lower physical qubit count than some competitors, which may limit the error-correcting code distance or the total number of stable logical qubits [Starting State].
- There is a distinction between announcing a system's capacity and publishing a verified demonstration of error-corrected performance [Starting State].
What would move this number most
Whether the reported 30 and 50 logical-qubit milestones meet the strict 'encoded with error correction' demonstration criteria versus being architectural capacity announcements.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 92 · 96 (spread 4 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-07 09:07 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-07 09:07 94% 26 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. A tier 2 source reports that Infleqtion has already added a 50 logical-qubit system to the Chicago Quantum Hub as of July 2026 [0].
- What pushes it up. Infleqtion explicitly announced reaching the 30 logical-qubit milestone at the QWC 2026 conference in September 2026 [5].
- What pushes it up. The company has established a strategic partnership with Riverlane to integrate real-time error correction decoders, directly addressing the technical requirement for logical qubits [2].
- What pushes it down. Infleqtion maintains a lower physical qubit count than some competitors, which may limit the error-correcting code distance or the total number of stable logical qubits [Starting State].
- What pushes it down. There is a distinction between announcing a system's capacity and publishing a verified demonstration of error-corrected performance [Starting State].
- What would move this number most. Whether the reported 30 and 50 logical-qubit milestones meet the strict 'encoded with error correction' demonstration criteria versus being architectural capacity announcements.
2026-09-22 00:41 85% 12 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).