Will Vaxcyte publish topline results from the phase 3 OPUS-2 trial before 31 July 2027?

deadline 2027-07-31 confidence high tier 1 evidence

Resolution being verified

SEC : 5 dépôt(s) 8-K contenant "OPUS-2" — le plus récent du 2026-10-05 (Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) (CIK 0001649094)) · source

87%Asturna estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if Vaxcyte publishes an OPUS-2 topline results release by 31 July 2027, whatever the direction of the results.

Verified starting state

OPUS-2 (roughly 1,300 adults, co-administration with the influenza vaccine versus sequential administration) has completed enrolment, with results expected in the first half of 2027. OPUS-2 results will likely be contingent on those of OPUS-1 and on regulatory filing priorities. (23 March 2026)

What pushes it up

OPUS-2 enrollment is already complete and topline results are officially targeted for the first half of 2027, prior to the July 31, 2027 deadline [tier 1].
OPUS-1 achieved positive pivotal Phase 3 results in October 2026, fulfilling the prerequisite for moving forward with OPUS-2 readouts [tier 1, article 0].
Vaxcyte successfully closed a $1.15 billion financing round in October 2026, ensuring strong financial backing for ongoing clinical trial operations [tier 1].

What pushes it down

Data management, auditing, or strategic reporting delays could slip the readout target past the end of July 2027 [tier 1].

What would move this number most

Whether data processing or unexpected administrative delays move the planned H1 2027 release date into late Q3 2027.

How this number is built

Deadline	2027-07-31
Base rate	85%
Best evidence	tier 1 · 2 article(s) used
Independent runs	85 · 88 (spread 3 pts)
Confidence	high
Evidence cap	not triggered
Last revised	2026-10-10 12:51
Model	gemini-3.6-flash

Sources consulted

Vaxcyte Reports Positive Topline Data from OPUS-1, the Pivotal Adult Phase 3 Trial of VAX-31, the Company's 31-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Candidatetier 1 · Investing News Network · 2026-10-05 Vaxcyte’s stock jumps as pneumococcal vaccine holds its own against Pfizer's, Merck’s shotstier 2 · Fierce Biotech · 2026-10-05

Probability history

2026-10-10 12:51 87% 14 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash

What pushes it up. OPUS-2 enrollment is already complete and topline results are officially targeted for the first half of 2027, prior to the July 31, 2027 deadline [tier 1].
What pushes it up. OPUS-1 achieved positive pivotal Phase 3 results in October 2026, fulfilling the prerequisite for moving forward with OPUS-2 readouts [tier 1, article 0].
What pushes it up. Vaxcyte successfully closed a $1.15 billion financing round in October 2026, ensuring strong financial backing for ongoing clinical trial operations [tier 1].
What pushes it down. Data management, auditing, or strategic reporting delays could slip the readout target past the end of July 2027 [tier 1].
What would move this number most. Whether data processing or unexpected administrative delays move the planned H1 2027 release date into late Q3 2027.

2026-10-06 21:10 72% 9 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

What pushes it up. Results are expected in the first half of 2027 per a tier‑1 statement (starting state)
What pushes it down. Publication may be delayed if OPUS‑1 results or regulatory filing priorities shift the timeline, also a tier‑1 statement
What would move this number most. The impact of OPUS‑1 outcomes and regulatory filing priorities on OPUS‑2’s reporting schedule

2026-09-20 09:02 83% 1 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview

Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).