Will NCT06834932 (AstraZeneca) still show a study completion date of 22 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 24 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-24
confidence high
tier 1 evidence
79%Asturna estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06834932 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 24 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 22 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 14 November 2026: NCT06834932 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by AstraZeneca, with 432 participants. Started 2024-12; announced primary completion 2027-02-22, announced study completion 2027-02-22. Record last updated 2026-11-13. The date under test is 2027-02-22. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06834932
What pushes it up
- The trial has already completed participant recruitment with 432 actual participants enrolled and the status updated to ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING [tier 1].
- AstraZeneca verified and updated the record on 2026-11-13, reaffirming the 2027-02-22 completion date just three months ahead of the target [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- Any minor operational delay in protocol follow-up visits, database lock, or safety monitoring pushing the date past 22 February 2027 by even a single day results in a negative resolution [tier 1].
- A failure to update the status in a timely manner leading to an Unknown or halted status before the 24 March 2027 check resolves as No under the criteria [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether final patient visits and trial closeout activities finish on schedule by February 2027 without AstraZeneca entering an extended completion date.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-24 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 78 · 80 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-11-14 07:35 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted